2022 U.S. Crops in Drought

In 2022, much attention was on the  megadrought  in the American West. In fact, over half of the Continuous U.S. was classified as in  drought conditions  by the U.S. Drought Monitor most of the year:

Using data from the U.S. Drought Monitor and the USDA NASS Land Use Strata for 2022, I calculated how much cultivated land was located in drought areas for the growing season of March through October, shown in this animation. In my analysis, 48 percent of cultivated land was in D1-D4 drought status in March, 47 percent in April, and 42 percent in May. Conditions eased in June to 34 percent, but by July and August, 40 percent and 41 percent were back in drought status. September eased slightly to 37 percent. But by the first week of October, 53 percent of cropland was in drought with another 26 percent abnormally dry.

 Unusually warm temperatures  dominated much of the country during most months, which enhanced  evapotranspiration  and worsened drought conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated  total crop and rangeland losses from major weather and climate disasters in 2022  at over $21.4 billion, with drought and wildfires alone accounting for over $20.4 billion in losses. Texas farmers experienced the highest total crop losses of all states, including $2.9 billion to their cotton crop and $1 billion in wheat damage, mainly attributed to widespread exceptional drought conditions. Kansas losses totaled over $1.2 billion for corn, $700 million for soybeans, Nebraska lost $1.8 billion in crops and South Dakota lost over $1.4 billion in crops, also linked to drought.

Using the Drought Monitor data with the USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer, I calculated the drought status of various crops. With the huge losses to the cotton crop in Texas, this is the first crop I chose to look more closely at. My analysis of the cotton cropland show that by July, 77 percent of U.S. cotton fields were in D1-D4 drought status. Texas, the  nation's highest cotton producing state , was hit hard. The map shows the concentration of cotton fields in the Texas High Plains, where farmers abandoned 74 percent of their planted upland cotton crops due to  heat and parched soils . In contrast, the Southeast states where there were few to no drought conditions,  reported an above-average cotton harvest .

Corn is the most widely grown crop in the U.S. and it was the  most impacted by weather and climate disasters in 2022 , partly because states like Texas, Kansas and Nebraska faced widespread exceptional drought, but also partly due to  dry and hot conditions in other corn-growing states  such as Indiana later in the summer. By the first week of August, 32 percent of corn fields were in drought and another 20 percent were abnormally dry, according to my analysis.  Corn plants can withstand  dry and hot conditions, but when and for how long will determine the impact on yields.

Alfalfa is a forage crop that is grown as feed for mainly dairy but also increasingly beef cattle. In my analysis, an average of 57 percent of alfalfa fields throughout the country were in drought status from March through October, with an average of 15 percent abnormally dry. It is one of the most  water-intensive  but efficient crops to grow in places like the Imperial Valley in California and in Arizona--because of the climate there the alfalfa is very high quality, it can be grown and harvested year-round, but it needs to be irrigated 100 percent of the year. Megadrought conditions and historically low levels on the Colorado River forced states to  re-negotiate water agreements  this year, with the federal government paying farmers to use less water. In Arizona,  farming leases  have been cancelled or will not be renewed over concerns of "unchecked amounts of groundwater" being pumped for irrigation of alfalfa. According to  one estimate , 37 percent of total water consumption in the Colorado river basin is used to irrigate Alfalfa hay fields. As an alternative near Phoenix, some  alfalfa fields  are irrigated with water from the Phoenix water treatment plant, water that legally can't be used to irrigate (human) food crops.

The drought in the Texas High Plains was so severe that  even irrigated cotton fields struggled  when temperatures reached over 100 degrees for at least 29 days in July and August. In some areas, the aquifer was too depleted for farmers to even have the choice to irrigate their fields due to overuse of groundwater, especially during past droughts when it was used to minimize crop loss.

The aquifer that lies underneath these cotton fields is called the  Ogallala and it is the largest aquifer under the U.S . It spans from the southern edge of South Dakota, through Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma to the Texas High Plains. More than  90 percent of the water pumped from the Ogallala is used to irrigate crops,  and the water is being depleted far faster than it can be recharged; in some places in past years, farmers were pumping four to six feet a year, while the natural recharge was half an inch. Many wells in Western Kansas have also gone dry.

California's Central Valley makes up only  1 percent of U.S. farmland, yet grows 40 percent  of the country's fruit, vegetables, and nuts. This productivity is only possible with groundwater pumping, and the aquifer system underneath these fields is also in crisis. Irrigated agriculture began in California in the late 1800s, and soon after,  water pumped for irrigation exceeded the amount of natural recharge . During drought, agriculture in the  Central Valley depends on groundwater for two-thirds  or more of its water supplies (it uses about one-third during non-drought years). In 2022, more than  5,300 wells in California have dried up . As the aquifer is drained, the ground collapses and permanently reduces the aquifer's water-storing capacity. Parts of the Central Valley are sinking about  1 foot in a year .

The depletion of aquifers in the High Plains and the Central Valley have been known for decades, but it is becoming apparent that it is happening throughout the nation. The New York Times recently published an  analysis of groundwater levels  that found "many of the aquifers that supply 90 percent of the nation's water systems...are being severely depleted." Several states including Texas and Colorado have rules that allow groundwater in some regions to be pumped until it is gone.

More sustainable practices that can help minimize the effects of drought on crops are increasingly being implemented by farmers. Fields using no-till methods for multiple years generally have a  higher water holding capacity , increased water infiltration into the soil, and the plant residue left on the fields help protect against evaporation by wind and sun. Similarly, planting cover crops increases the organic matter in soil which in turn can improve the ability of that soil to support crop growth in times of water stress, and can be done in conjunction with no-till.

Irrigation efficiency can be improved with methods such as micro- and drip irrigation, managing water flow rates to reduce runoff, irrigation scheduling, and regular maintenance of existing systems. In regions where possible, irrigation ponds can harvest and store rain water and  can often improve groundwater recharge .

In 2022, a monthly average of 42 percent of U.S. cropland from March to October was in moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional drought. Corn, the most widely grown crop in the U.S., was impacted by wide-spread drought conditions with an average of 32 percent of fields in D1-D4 conditions during the growing season. The cotton harvest was greatly affected with an average of 67 percent of fields in D1-D4 and an average of 33 percent in extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Alfalfa fields are less concentrated than cotton; even so an average of 57 percent were located in drought-stricken areas.

If climate trends continue toward consecutive years of drought in cropland areas, it seems likely that standard agricultural practices will need to shift in the very near future toward better water conservation, more drought tolerance, and more sustainable methods.

Drought status data are shape files from the  National Drought Monitor  for the first week of each month, March through October 2022. Cultivated land data is a 30m resolution raster file from the  USDA NASS Land Use Strata  for 2022. Crop data is a 30m resolution raster file from the  USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer  for 2022.

Percentage of fields within each drought classification area were calculated by using the Summarize Categorical Raster tool to count pixels of each value within each drought area and divided by total pixel count of the value.

2022 Cropland Data Layer  accuracy  overall is 81%, corn is 90%, cotton is 85%, and alfalfa is 82%.