Modesto 2050: Briefing Book

The City is embarking on Modesto 2050: Our City. Our Future. – an update to the Modesto General Plan, the document that guides City decisions about transportation, jobs, housing, parks, shopping, services, and more through the year 2050.

This Briefing Book offers a visual and descriptive snapshot of Modesto in 2022 – how land is used, how people move around, how the economy works, how the city’s physical form affects community health, how environmental hazards are likely to affect residents, and how important infrastructure services support the community.

The information in this Briefing Book is intended to establish a shared understanding of these important characteristics to highlight what we can build from and what we need to address in the General Plan Update. We invite you to consider the information presented here as you help envision the future of Modesto.

This Briefing Book is set up with a series of tabs, shown at the top of your screen. Each tab addresses a different topic; click on a tab to read about it. This Briefing Book also includes interactive maps. To get the most out of these maps, please read the following instructions:

Modesto was founded in 1870 as a stop on the Central Pacific rail line, which at the time was constructed to connect northern and southern California through the San Joaquin Valley. Modesto’s original layout is still visible today, with the street grid oriented parallel/perpendicular to the rail line. Downtown Modesto encompasses about 1 square mile in the heart of the city, serving as a civic, cultural, and entertainment destination for the city and region. Since its incorporation in 1884, the city has grown to more than 37 square miles and is one of the 20 most-populated cities in California.

Modesto serves as the government seat of Stanislaus County with core County government buildings and services located in the city. It’s surrounded by the smaller cities of Ceres and Riverbank and the unincorporated communities of Salida, Wood Colony, and Empire, as well as large tracts of agricultural land. Modesto sits at the heart of the county, and decisions in Modesto impact the larger region as well. 

There are several key boundaries that will be referenced throughout the General Plan Update; they are described and shown on the map below:

• City Limit: This is the area where the City of Modesto has authority over land use and other decisions. The City's regulations are enforced here, and City services like fire protection, police, sewer, water, and road maintenance are provided.

• Sphere of Influence (SOI): This boundary identifies land that the City may annex in the future, meaning that it could become part of the City limit described above. It is regulated by the  Stanislaus Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO)  to ensure that it is logical and encompasses areas where urban/City services could be provided.

• General Plan Planning Area: This boundary covers a broader area than the SOI, including all areas that should be considered in the General Plan. The City doesn’t have regulatory power over this land that is outside the city limit, but development in this area may have an impact on the future of the city. This boundary was established during the previous General Plan Update, and it will be evaluated for potential changes during this General Plan Update. Therefore, some areas that are shown within the current Planning Area boundary may not be included in this General Plan Update. 

Planning is not only a required function of local government in California, but also critical to keeping the City on track towards achieving the community's goals and objectives for the future. The Modesto City Council, Planning Commission, and Board of Zoning Adjustment are responsible for making planning decisions in the city. Community and Economic Development Department staff implement the General Plan. Other commissions and City departments also play a role in planning decisions, as follows:

•  City Council . The mayor and six members of the City Council are elected by the public. The City Council sets policy and direction for the city and has direct authority over land use decisions. As the City's legislative body, it is the City Council that ultimately adopts the General Plan and acts on zoning matters. The City Council also hears appeals of decisions made by the Planning Commission.

•  Planning Commission . The Planning Commission makes decisions and recommendations about land use and development. The Planning Commission has final authority regarding subdivision maps and parcel maps, certain zoning matters and development plans, and occasionally matters appealed either from the staff level or Board of Zoning Adjustment. The Planning Commission makes recommendations to the City Council regarding annexations, rezonings, Zoning Code amendments and most General Plan-related matters. The Planning Commission consists of seven members, each appointed by the City Council.

•  Board of Zoning Adjustment . The Board of Zoning Adjustment makes decisions on applications for conditional use permits, variances, and site plans for office development. The Board of Zoning Adjustment also hears appeals concerning decisions made by the Community and Economic Development Department staff. This Board consists of seven members appointed by the City Council, including a representative from the Planning Commission.

• Other Boards, Commissions, and Committees. There are a variety of other City commissions that advise the City Council on targeted issues. Of particular relevance to Modesto 2050, the  Tuolumne River Regional Park Citizens Advisory Committee ,  Economic Development Committee,  and  Citizens Housing and Community Development Committee  advise City staff and the City Council on topics like preservation of the Tuolumne River corridor, economic development, and housing.

• City Departments and Divisions. The  Community and Economic Development Department  is leading Modesto 2050. Other City departments playing a key role include the  City Manager’s Office ;  Public Works Department ;  Parks, Recreation, and Neighborhoods Department ;  Utilities Department ;  Police Department , and  Fire Department . 

Population Overview

Modesto is the 18th largest city in the state by population, the seventh largest in the Northern California Mega Region (the 21 counties spanning the San Francisco Bay Area, the Monterey Central Coast, the Capitol Region, and the Northern San Joaquin Valley), the second largest in the northern San Joaquin Valley, and the largest urban center in Stanislaus County.

Approximately 219,300 people live in Modesto, while residents of unincorporated areas just outside the city shop and use other services offered in Modesto. As of today, there are about 77,000 homes and 88,300 jobs in Modesto.

Many residents are attracted to Modesto by its relatively affordable housing – both ownership and rental – along with a stable job market, availability of healthcare services, and proximity to the Sierra Nevada mountains and San Francisco Bay Area.

Age

The median age of Modesto residents is 36 years, which is slightly older than the median age throughout Stanislaus County (35). Since 2010, the fastest-growing age group has been 65 or older, which includes the aging baby boomer generation, and the second-fastest growth occurred in the 55 to 64 age group; however, the majority of residents in the city today are under age 34. 

Race and Ethnicity

The majority (56 percent) of Modesto residents are people of color, including Latinx, Asian, and African American people. The US Census tracks race (e.g., White, Asian, and African American people) separately from ethnicity (e.g., Latinx people). Race is defined as your self-identification with social groups having similar physical traits that are common among people of your shared ancestry, while ethnicity identifies your nationality and culture. The chart below shows the percentage of the Modesto population that is Latinx, as well as the percentage of the non-Latinx population that falls into each of the race categories tracked by the Census. Latinx people are those who are from or have a background in a Latin American country. 

The pattern of land use in Modesto helps to define the city’s character and that of its individual neighborhoods. The map below shows generally how land is currently used in the city and surrounding areas. The majority of land in Modesto is used for housing. Pockets of public land uses, including City and County facilities, State and federal buildings, parks, schools, and the airport, are distributed throughout the city. Commercial, office, and industrial uses, which are vital to the local economy, are concentrated along major transportation corridors. Outside the city limit, dominant land uses include agricultural, industrial, and residential uses. The land use categories shown in the map here are generalized and cover a wide range of specific use types; for example, the commercial category includes regional shopping malls as well as small neighborhood shops.

The General Plan land use map guides future land uses in Modesto. The land use designations on the map broadly specify the types of uses allowed on each parcel. In order to achieve community goals, such as encouraging job growth or maintaining modest housing costs, the land use designations may differ in some places from how the land is used today.

The adopted General Plan land use map includes 11 distinct land use designations. As shown on the map below, the majority of the city is planned for residential uses, while the edges of the city are planned for industrial uses and business parks or continuing agricultural activities. Commercial and mixed uses are planned along major thoroughfares within the established developed areas of the city. Areas along Dry Creek and the Tuolumne River are planned to remain as open space and recreational uses. The unincorporated Salida community was identified as part of the Planning Area during the previous General Plan Update, and designated as "Salida Community Plan" in the General Plan. This land use designation is intended to follow the  Salida Community Plan  that was prepared by Stanislaus County.

The land use designations specify the allowed density of residential development (the number of dwelling units per acre) and the intensity of non-residential development (the ratio of building square footage to the lot size, known as floor area ratio, or FAR). You can click on the colored areas depicting the various designations on the map below to find the allowed residential density or guiding FAR. These General Plan land use designations are the foundation for the more detailed and specific development regulations contained in the City’s Zoning Code.

In an effort to manage and guide growth in Modesto and surrounding areas, the General Plan establishes a community growth strategy based around the Downtown Area, Baseline Developed Area (BDA), and Planned Urbanizing Area (PUA) boundaries shown on the map below. Together these boundaries play a major role in shaping land use and community character across the city and surrounding areas. The BDA contains the developed areas of the city and certain areas outside the city limit that have a clearly defined future. The PUA is expected to absorb future urban development and includes predominantly vacant or underused agricultural land that is minimally served by infrastructure.

In 1979 and 1997, voters adopted Measures A and M, respectively, to ensure that the public can share their opinions on potential growth. The City periodically reviews local growth trends to ensure these boundaries provide an adequate inventory of vacant land and infrastructure to accommodate future growth. If the City determines that additional land is needed, the City Council can schedule a public vote to approve extending infrastructure to land outside the City’s boundaries to serve future development. 

When planning for future land uses in Modesto, the jobs-to-housing balance is an important consideration, as the ratio of jobs to employed residents directly affects peoples' ability to work and live in the same area. The city is currently fairly balanced in this respect, but there are slightly more employed residents than jobs. Therefore, maintaining and expanding the jobs available to Modesto residents will be important to avoid the need for Modesto residents to commute to other parts of the Central Valley and beyond.

To promote the creation of new jobs and improve the local economy, the General Plan supports new and redeveloped business parks and industrial and office employment centers. Downtown and the Kiernan Business Park are the highest priorities for employment center development.

Modesto is the transportation hub of Stanislaus County, with a wide range of services and strong economic activity that relies on an extensive and varied transportation network. The city is built around the Downtown, which is served by local and express bus services. The surrounding residential areas are connected to regional employment centers by freeways and transit, and bordering agricultural and open space areas are served by a network of rural highways and roads.

To support goods movement, the City and Caltrans have identified local and State roadways as truck routes. There are also multiple freight rail lines operating in the city, including the Union Pacific Railroad along Highway 99 and the Burlington Northern-Santa Fe Railway that runs north-south along the eastern border of the city. The Modesto and Empire Traction railroad connects these two lines with an east-west route. In addition, the Modesto City/County Airport, located southeast of the city limit, is home base for approximately 200 general aviation aircraft and the Modesto Flight Training school.

A range of public transit options are available in Modesto:

• Stanislaus Regional Transportation Authority (StanRTA) is the primary transit provider in the Stanislaus region with local and regional connections to the Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) train station in Lathrop, the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) station in Dublin/Pleasanton, and downtown transit centers in Manteca and Stockton. StanRTA also provides service in the suburban and outlying areas of Stanislaus County. The StanRTA was created in 2022 when the local Modesto Area Express and regional Stanislaus Rapid Transit brands were merged into one seamless system under the StanRTA to improve transit efficiencies in the region. 

• Modesto Dial-A-Ride is a special demand-response transportation service for senior and/or qualified disabled residents in the Modesto Urban Area, including Ceres and Salida.

• Amtrak provides rail service, with connections to Bakersfield, Sacramento, and Oakland via the San Joaquin line, which runs along the eastern edge of the city.

• The ACE passenger rail service is being extended from Lathrop to Ceres and Merced, and renovations are underway to accommodate a new ACE station at the Downtown Modesto Transportation Center. Service is anticipated to begin in 2024. 

While some employment centers like Downtown Modesto are accessible by buses and Amtrak, others like industrial areas in southwest Modesto and interregional destinations in Turlock, Ceres, and San Joaquin County are more easily accessed by private cars. In addition, some people who work in an area that is well-served by transit may still drive if the drive time is faster or if they also do other daily trips such as childcare drop off or pickup.

Data about how people commute to work shows that public transit ridership, walking, and bicycling decreased slightly in Modesto between 2011 and 2019, and driving alone is still the most common way for Modesto residents to get to work. An increasing number of people work from home, a trend that started even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The modes of transportation that people in Modesto use to get to work are shown in the table below.

How commuters choose to get to and from work is dependent on job location, land use patterns, and the availability of transportation options. More than two thirds of employed Modesto residents work outside the city, and two thirds of employees in Modesto come from outside the city. Of those Modesto residents who leave the county for work, the largest share goes to San Joaquin County, while others go to the job centers of Alameda County, Santa Clara County, or Sacramento County. Jobs in Modesto tend to be filled by local residents, residents from other Stanislaus County cities including Turlock and Ceres, or San Joaquin County residents.

While most residents commute during typical peak morning and evening hours, Modesto has a notable number of workers travelling in the afternoon. This indicates the diverse occupations of residents, such as part-time, second shift, or medical, safety, or service jobs

The City applies a complete streets approach to plan, design, and operate transportation facilities to enable safe travel for all users, including children, elderly or disabled people, pedestrians, bicyclists, transit vehicles, and other vehicles. The complete street approach varies based on the function and context of the street within the neighborhood.

The infrastructure network that supports non-motorized transportation includes sidewalks, crosswalks, pedestrian signals and signs, accessible curb ramps, bikeways, and bicycle racks (including on all StanRTA buses). The City and the Downtown Modesto Partnership installed the city’s first bike corral (on-street bicycle parking) at the southwest corner of 11th Street and J Street in 2014, and since then, several more have been built in Downtown.

The City’s bicycle network consists of a hierarchy of bikeway designations, which are shown on the map below:

• Class I. Typically called a “bike path,” a Class I bikeway provides bicycle travel on a paved right-of-way completely separated from any street or highway.

• Class II. Often referred to as a “bike lane,” a Class II bikeway provides a striped and stenciled lane for one-way travel on a street or highway.

• Class III. Generally referred to as a “bike route,” a Class III bikeway provides for shared use with pedestrian or motor vehicle traffic and is identified only by signs.

• Class IV. Known as “cycle tracks” or “separated bikeways,” these facilities provide a right-of-way designated exclusively for bicycle and pedestrian travel adjacent to a roadway that is protected from vehicular traffic through a physical barrier, such as landscaping or bollards.

In 2021, StanCOG prepared an  Active Transportation Toolkit  and  Non-Motorized Transportation Master Plan . These plans provide strategies and recommend projects that will provide safer walking and bicycling routes throughout Modesto.  

Modesto is home to companies across a broad spectrum of industries, including manufacturing, health care, professional and administrative services, and retail. The largest industry sectors in Modesto, based on the number of jobs, are listed below. Together they account for more than half of the total jobs in the city.

• Ambulatory, Hospitals, and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (21% of Modesto jobs)

• Local Government (16% of Modesto jobs)

• Food Services and Drinking Places (9% of Modesto jobs)

• Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Product Manufacturing (7% of Modesto jobs)

Many of the county’s top 25 employers are located in Modesto, including E&J Gallo Winery, Del Monte Foods, Frito-Lay, Walmart, and various healthcare providers and public agencies. Some of these major employers are also multi-billion dollar companies.

As shown in the map below, jobs are clustered most densely in Downtown Modesto, at the medical centers at Doctors Medical Center and Sutter Health in central Modesto, and at the Vintage Faire Mall. The number of jobs per square mile tend to diminish near the city limit, except near Salida where businesses and retail stores are clustered east of Highway 99.

Coming out of the Great Recession in 2010, unemployment rates in Modesto and Stanislaus County recovered more slowly than the in rest of the region, but by 2019, prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate in Modesto declined to a healthy 5.6 percent. The Modesto unemployment rate nearly doubled with the stay-at-home orders and other public health measures put into place in 2020, but it has somewhat recovered to 8.2 percent as of August 2021. 

The median household income in Modesto was $62,067 in 2019, representing a 30-percent increase since 2010. About a quarter of households earn less than $35,000 per year, while just under half of households earn between $35,000 and $100,000 per year. About 10 percent of households earn over $150,000 per year. This distribution of household incomes is similar to the rest of Stanislaus County, and generally lower than incomes in the 21 counties that make up the Northern California “Mega Region” (i.e., the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, El Dorado, Marin, Merced, Monterey, Napa, Placer, Sacramento, San Benito, San Francisco, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, Stanislaus, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba). 

Per capita income (i.e., income for an individual person instead of a household) in Modesto in 2019 was $27,632, an increase of about 20 percent since 2010. Compared to other cities in northern San Joaquin Valley, Modesto’s median household and per capita incomes are ranked about in the middle. The highest incomes are in Tracy and Manteca, the two cities closest to the Bay Area.

Housing

Though Modesto was founded in the 1870s, the majority of homes in Modesto today were constructed in the 1970s and 80s during a period of rapid population growth. Housing production slowed through the 1990s and 2000s, and nearly halted following the onset of the Great Recession in the late 2000s. New housing construction has remained relatively low since 2010, which has led to lower vacancy rates and higher costs to purchase or rent a home. Meanwhile, the number of homeowners in Modesto has remained relatively unchanged, meaning that the majority of household growth has been among renter households.

Half of Stanislaus County’s multi-family housing is located in Modesto. Demand is strongest for units with one or two bedrooms. Average asking rents for all multi-family units in the city is $1,365 per month, which is about $100 more than the countywide average. As for-sale home prices increase, demand is growing for higher density, moderately sized housing that can be rented at prices that are affordable to the local workforce and younger households. 

Median home prices in Modesto and Stanislaus County, at $411,000 and $425,000 respectively, were roughly half of the median home price throughout the state. The growth in median home prices in Modesto since 2010 has matched statewide growth, indicating that Modesto has stayed relatively affordable compared to the rest of California. However, area incomes may not have risen at the same rate of housing prices.

Retail

The retail market in Modesto is generally stable. There are currently about 13 million total square feet of retail space in the city, with a 5.9-percent vacancy rate. Retail activity is mainly concentrated around Highway 99, including key destination shopping centers anchored by various chain big box stores and the Vintage Faire Mall. There is also significant retail activity along Highway 108, serving more locally focused needs than the regional shopping centers on Highway 99.

Retail space in Modesto accounts for about 50 percent of all retail space in the county. The average asking lease rate for retail space in Modesto is $1.28 per square foot, which is about 8 percent higher than last year, but still slightly lower than in the broader county at $1.36 per square foot. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the average asking rent was $1.30 per square foot, indicating that the retail market has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, asking rents in the rest of the county now exceed the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 

Office

Demand for office space in the Modesto area market is largely driven by demand for medical office space, and new demand is concentrated near Kaiser Permanente and Sutter Health Memorial Medical Center. Other major office space needs are from various local, State, and federal government agencies, many of which are concentrated in Downtown Modesto.

Modesto has about 5.8 million square feet of developed office space, which accounts for approximately 64 percent of all office space in the county. The vacancy rate for office space is a healthy 4.2 percent and consistent with the 2019 vacancy rate, indicating minimal impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. Downtown Modesto, which features a concentration of government agencies and professional offices, is also starting to host large industrial companies that are either running out of space for office development closer to their industrial operations or reserving that land for future industrial expansions.

The average asking lease rate for office space in Modesto is $1.83 per square foot, which is slightly higher than the countywide average of $1.79 per square foot. Rents are highest for medical office space around the hospitals. Even pre-pandemic, there was a trend of office rent rates increasing at a steady pace in both Modesto and the county, indicating a broader trend towards increasing demand for office space. 

Industrial

With deep roots in agriculture, food production, and related manufacturing, Modesto has a resilient industrial real estate market. The primary industrial area is located to the east of the Modesto City-County Airport, just outside the city limit, in an area known as the Beard Industrial District. There are currently almost 8.6 million square feet of industrial space in Modesto, while an additional 35.3 million square feet are located just outside the city limit. Together, this represents 79 percent of the industrial space countywide.

As indicated by the industrial space square footages reported above, much of the industrial activity in the area occurs just outside the city limit, which also affects the asking lease rates and vacancy rates for industrial space in Modesto. The average asking lease rate in Modesto is $0.19 per square foot, substantially lower than the countywide rate of $0.41. Industrial vacancy rates in the city are also somewhat elevated at 9.5 percent, primarily located in smaller and older industrial spaces, compared to the countywide vacancy rate of 4.3 percent.

While agriculture and food products manufacturing businesses are likely to maintain an important role in the Modesto area economy, other industrial users are also being attracted to the area. Most notably, construction and cannabis-related businesses are increasingly leasing space or expressing interest in Modesto area industrial space.

Low-income residents, communities of color, indigenous peoples and tribal nations, and immigrant communities have historically disproportionately experienced environmental burdens and related health problems. This inequity has resulted from many factors, including inappropriate zoning and incomplete land use planning, which have led to development patterns that concentrate pollution emissions and environmental hazards near “disadvantaged communities” (as they are termed in State law). 

The combination of a lack of economic resources and a history of inequitable policy making means that these disadvantaged communities often continue to face significant barriers to overall health, livelihood, and sustainability. Changes to the physical realm in which we live, work, learn, and play can help to address these barriers by reducing exposure to pollution, improving public facilities and housing, expanding access to healthy food and physical activity, and engaging citizens in the decision-making process.

In 2016, SB 1000 added a new requirement for local jurisdictions, including the City of Modesto, to address environmental justice as a required topic in the General Plan. By law, the City’s new General Plan must include objectives and policies that address the topics discussed below.

Health Risks

General Plan objectives and policies must work to reduce the unique or compounded health risks in disadvantaged communities, including: 

Reducing pollution exposure and improving air quality. Policies should reduce air and other pollutants that affect disadvantaged communities, while also reducing residents’ exposure to pollutants that may already be present from past activities. In Modesto, this may include policies and programs that reduce exposure to air pollution from vehicles or nearby pesticide use, such as through land use patterns that reduce traffic congestion and locate homes away from pollution sources, requiring vegetative barriers between homes and pollution sources, and encouraging home retrofits to improve air filtration.

Promoting public facilities. Policies should ensure that disadvantaged communities have adequate access to public facilities and services, including emergency facilities, infrastructure, transportation, school facilities, open space, and government buildings. Inequity in public facility access is often an issue in places like southwest Modesto, where there is a patchwork of land that has been annexed into the City and that enjoys City amenities like sidewalks. General Plan policies should promote equitable access to public facilities, including through public improvements in and near disadvantaged communities.

Promoting food access. Policies should promote access to affordable, nutritious, and culturally appropriate food in disadvantaged communities. This could include policies to attract a grocery store, encourage the sale of fresh food at convenience stores, facilitate community gardens and urban farming, or discourage unhealthy food sales in disadvantaged communities. 

Promoting safe and sanitary homes. The Housing Element works to ensure access to housing, including affordable housing, and includes policies that promote safe and sanitary homes. As part of the General Plan Update, these policies could be expanded to:

• Ensure that affordable housing projects meet health and safety requirements that are consistent with market-rate housing.

• Expand efforts to repair and rehabilitate substandard housing in disadvantaged communities.

• Remediate lead-based paint, mold, mildew, asbestos, and other contaminants.

• Enforce public health-related codes in disadvantaged communities.

Promoting physical activity. Policies should support an equitable distribution of opportunities for physical activity, such as parks, open space, and active transportation (like sidewalks and bike lanes). This may include building new parks, sidewalks, and bike lanes in disadvantaged communities that lack those amenities, while also prioritizing maintenance of those facilities in disadvantaged communities. In Modesto, where summertime heat can be extreme, it may also mean planting and maintaining trees that will provide shade for those facilities. 

Civic Engagement

General Plan objectives and policies must promote participation by disadvantaged communities in the public decision-making process, through approaches such as:

• Using culturally appropriate techniques, language, and context.

• Ensuring convenient meeting times and locations for community members.

• Using social media and other communication channels for those without time to attend public meetings.

• Providing translation services and childcare when needed.

• Offering pop-up or community-based outreach methods.

• Leveraging existing events and meetings to meet people where they already are.

Prioritization of Disadvantaged Communities

Disadvantaged communities are often overlooked when considering public investments and developing new amenities, and delayed investments and programs can prolong inequalities. Therefore, an important part of planning for environmental justice is to proactively prioritize projects and investments that directly benefit disadvantaged communities. The City could prioritize improvements and programs that serve disadvantaged communities by assessing the following:

• Whether improvements or programs meet an important community need. Underserved communities have needs and priorities that may be distinct from those of the public at large. The equity of projects and investments should be assessed based on whether and how well they address these priority needs.

• Whether benefits to the local community are significant.

• Whether low-income residents are the primary beneficiaries.

• Whether improvements or programs avoid substantial burdens, like increasing toxic exposures, causing a net loss of affordable housing, or displacing residents or local businesses.

The State has developed a tool to map disadvantaged communities, called the California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool, or “ CalEnviroScreen .” While SB 1000 specifically identifies CalEnviroScreen as a screening tool to help identify disadvantaged communities, it also allows for consideration of other data sources and local conditions. Many communities start the process of mapping disadvantaged communities using this tool, and then refine boundaries based on community input and more localized data sources.  

The CalEnviroScreen results for the Modesto area are shown in the map below, which presents the data by Census tract. The mapping results are based on 13 different pollution indicators, including traffic density, diesel emissions, pesticide use, concentrations of toxic clean-up sites, and proximity to solid waste sites, as well as eight different population characteristics indicators, including asthma and cardiovascular disease rates, educational attainment, linguistic isolation (i.e., limited English-speaking households), poverty, and unemployment. The CalEnviroScreen tool applies a formula to generate a combined ranking score that considers all 21 indicators for each Census tract. The Census tracts with CalEnviroScreen rankings between 75 and 100 percent (i.e., a combined score in the top 25 percent of all Census tracts in the State) are considered to be disadvantaged. However, this tool is just a starting point, and the City will engage community members to consider what other data sources should be consulted to reflect local conditions.

Modesto is at risk from a variety of natural hazards, and climate change is likely to make many of these hazards more damaging for people, buildings and structures, ecosystems, and other important community assets. The City is preparing a Vulnerability Assessment that looks at the potential harm from various natural hazards, including how climate change may increase the threat, to help build long-term resiliency. The Vulnerability Assessment will address the topics identified below, and the General Plan Update will use this information to help protect the people and assets of Modesto against natural hazards in the near term and far into the future.

Strong storms, or failure of a dam, levee, or other infrastructure, can create flooding. Floods can damage or destroy property, harm local infrastructure, and threaten public safety. Although weather forecasts can usually warn people about flood risks, intense storms can sometimes cause flash floods with little or no warning. Both moving and standing floodwaters can be harmful. Depending on the nature of an event, floodwaters may build up quickly or slowly, and may recede rapidly or persist for days. In some cases, floods can cause hazardous materials to be released, creating a public health emergency. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of major storms, which could create more frequent and severe flooding. 

As shown in the map below, the city is susceptible to flooding primarily along the Tuolumne River and Dry Creek corridors. Smaller 100-year floodplains (i.e., areas that have a 1-percent chance of being flooded in any given year) are located east of Modesto. Parts of southwest Modesto are within the 200- and 500-year floodplains (i.e., areas that have a 0.5- and 0.2-percent chance of being flooded in any given year, respectively).  

Extreme Heat

Both the annual average temperature and the frequency of high heat days are projected to increase in Modesto as a result of climate change:

• The historic average maximum temperature in Modesto has been 74.6°F. This number is expected to increase to 79.7°F by 2050 and to 82.9°F by 2100.

• Historically, any day that reaches a high of 102.9°F or above in Modesto has qualified as a high heat day, and approximately four high heat days have occurred per year. By 2050, approximately 22 high heat days are projected to occur per year. By 2100, Modesto is projected to experience 42 high heat days per year.

High heat can cause severe community and health impacts. Long periods of intense heat often lead to increased energy use to cool homes, which can result in electricity restrictions or power outages. Higher temperatures can also contribute to drought by reducing the Sierra Nevada snowpack. Prolonged and extreme high heat events can also contribute to heat-related health concerns, including cardiovascular and respiratory issues and heat-related illnesses like heat stroke, heat exhaustion, and kidney stones.

Drought is caused by a lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, resulting in water shortages. The Sierra Nevada snowpack is the primary source for replenishing water for much of California, including Modesto. Drier winters and higher temperatures that lead to more rain instead of snow can reduce the spring snowpack runoff, which can contribute to drought. While drought can affect the day-to-day lives of Modesto residents and businesses and surrounding agricultural operations, it can also increase wildfire risk, which can lead to poor air quality in Modesto from wildfire smoke.

Severe weather refers to any dangerous storms with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life. Forms of severe weather most likely to be encountered in Modesto include heavy rain, lightning, and hail. The most common impacts of severe weather are damage to or loss of infrastructure and utilities. Roads may become impassable due to flooding, downed trees, or landslides. Power lines may be downed due to high winds, and services like water supply or telephone may not be able to operate without power. Other potential impacts of severe weather include damage to homes and other structures or personal injury from lightning, wind, or flooding. 

Historically, earthquakes in California have occasionally proven extremely destructive. Earthquakes usually occur without warning and, after just a few seconds, can cause massive damage and sometimes casualties. The most common effect of earthquakes is ground motion, usually felt as shaking and vibrations.

Numerous earthquakes occur each year along California’s major faults. The active faults that have the most potential to impact the Modesto area include the San Andreas, Calaveras, and Hayward faults. 

The City of Modesto has provided drinking water to its residents and businesses for over a hundred years. In 1985, the City acquired multiple private water companies, expanding its service to some nearby areas outside the city limit. In total, there are more than 75,000 water connections, which are served by a system of pipelines, wells, and water tanks.

The City’s water comes from two sources: groundwater (e.g., underground aquifers) and surface water (e.g., rivers and reservoirs). As of 2021, 54 percent of the City’s water comes from groundwater via City-operated wells, while the remaining 46 percent comes from surface water via the  Modesto Irrigation District (MID) . MID also provides electricity to city residents and businesses.

To ensure water quality, the City regularly tests drinking water samples; each month, 892 samples are tested for chemicals, radioactivity, and mineral content. The City’s drinking water meets Maximum Contaminant Level standards for State and federally regulated contaminants.

Modesto receives, on average, 12 inches of rain each year. Most of this precipitation falls during December, January, and February. To help with flood management, the City’s storm drainage system directs excess stormwater to storage areas and natural waterways. This storm drainage system consists of approximately 77 miles of storm drain lines, 14,000 drainage basins, and 10,000 rockwells, which are perforated vertical pipes placed underground in depressed areas where stormwater tends to gather, allowing stormwater to percolate into the soil. The drainage system primarily directs water to these basins and rockwells, though some water is also directed to agricultural irrigation canals, the Tuolumne River, and Dry Creek.

The City is responsible for the movement and treatment of wastewater in the Modesto area. It provides sewer collection service to city residents and businesses, as well as the Beard Industrial Tract, Empire, North Ceres, Bret Harte, and other unincorporated areas. In total, the system consists of more than 600 miles of pipeline and 40 lift stations that transport wastewater to the two wastewater treatment plants serving the city.

The City also operates the  Sutter Wastewater Treatment Plant  and  Jennings Wastewater Treatment Plant . The plants have the capacity to treat up to 70 million gallons of wastewater per day, but currently only treat approximately 20 million gallons per day. The Jennings Wastewater Treatment Plant maintains 596 acres of ponds, making it one of the largest wastewater storage pond systems in the United States. At the Jennings Wastewater Treatment Plant, water is run through a state-of-the-art Tertiary Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR) and Membrane system to meet the stringent effluent limits required by the State. This tertiary effluent water supply provides a new source of water for nearby agricultural customers in the Del Puerto Water District.

The City provides solid waste collection services to its residents and businesses through contracts with private haulers.  Gilton Solid Waste Management  and  Bertolotti Disposal Service  are currently under contract to provide trash, recycling, and organic waste collection services. The City currently uses a “two can” collection program for garbage and organic recycling. Each day, 2,450 tons of waste are collected in the city: 28 percent is from residential uses, while the remaining 72 percent comes from commercial, industrial, public, and other uses. Over 50,000 tons of organic material is recycled every year through the program, with up to 70 percent of residential household waste captured for recycling.