Climate Change in Connecticut
First of all, what is climate change?
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), climate change is: "a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates. These changes have a broad range of observed effects that are synonymous with the term." Ever since the dawn of the Industrial Era, the earth has been warming up at unprecedented rates due to the emission of Greenhouse Gasses like Carbon Dioxide and Methane. The vast majority (97%) of climate scientists agree that climate change is primarily human caused. Here is a quote from NASA describing the scientific consensus on climate change: "With that said, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position."
This is a graph of methane concentration in the Earth's atmosphere. The section of the graph that is coloured in black represents historical data gathered by ice cores located in the Greenland and Antarctica. The section of the graph that is coloured in orange represents data gathered by air samplers affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA.)
This is a graph of carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere. The section of the graph that is coloured in orange represents historical data gathered by ice cores. The section of the graph that is coloured in red represents data gathered by NOAA.
How bad has it gotten?
To understand the current extent and impacts of climate change, I created two maps of Connecticut. The maps above show Connecticut coloured to represent different yearlong average temperatures. The deeper and darker the green, the colder it is; the deeper the yellow, the warmer it is, as shown in the table below. The map on the left illustrates what the temperature looked like in 1895; the one on the right displays temperatures for 2023. The slider allows you to view the maps of both years. Move it to the right to examine what the temperatures of Connecticut looked like in the 19th century; move it to the left to observe what Connecticut's temperatures look like now.
Understanding the RCPs
In order to fully grasp climate change, one must completely comprehend the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs.) These are essentially a set of scenarios that might play out in the future. There are four of these: RCP2.6 (sometimes called RCP3PD, the "PD" standing for "Peak and Decline"), RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. RCP2.6 represents the best case scenario, RCP8.5 the worst. Here is a quote by Stanford University Professor Rob Jackson: "God help us if 8.5 turns out to be the right scenario... That’s an inconceivable increase for global temperatures—especially when we think about them being global average temperatures. Temperatures will be even higher in the northern latitudes, and higher over land than over the ocean."
Underwater areas
The maps below show what the a different places in Connecticut will look like after 2 degrees celsius (The extent to which the Paris agreement attempts to limit global warming to, blue/green) and 4.0 degrees celsius (The extent to which the RCP 8.5 projects global warming to take place by about 2050, red) warming above preindustrial levels. They are from an organisation known as Climate Central, which focuses on bringing information about this crisis to the public.
Stamford, Fairfield County
This is a map of downtown Stamford, parts of Greenwich and Darien. As you may notice, the University of Connecticut Stamford campus would be rendered completely underwater in the 4.0 degrees scenario. All of Harbour Point would be below the tideline in both scenarios, and the Ferguson Library would be beneath the sea after 4 degrees of global warming. However, even global warming of 2.0°C would render the building unbelievably close to the tideline.
Bridgeport, Fairfield County
This map is of Bridgeport, Fairfield, and Stratford. As you can observe, all of Bridgeport University would be completely underwater under the 4.0-degree scenario, with Seaside Park being submerged into the Long Island Sound in both of them. Total Mortgage Arena would be rendered part of the Sound in both scenarios, and so would Sikorsky Memorial Airport
New Haven, New Haven County
Moving northward, New Haven would be severly impacted by sea level rise. First, the city houses an important motorway: Interstate 95. Many parts of the highway would be severely impacted by climate change, especially given their close proximity to the Long Island Sound. Parts of the runway of Tweed New Haven Airport would be rendered underwater, too. Yale University, while perhaps not submerged into Lake Whitney, would be right next to the water.
Well, What else might happen?
Flooding
First of all, flooding would be much worse across the US and the world. According to NASA, by 2100, sea levels in the United States are projected to rise an average of two metres "in a high-emissions scenario."
Drought
Drought will probably be much more prevalent across the US and the World. According to Climate Connections, an initiative by Yale University, "Higher air temperatures not only encourage drought conditions to build but also intensify them. What might have otherwise been a mild or moderate drought in a cooler world will become, in a warmer world, more severe as a result of increased evaporation."
Hurricanes
In addition, studies by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and NOAA indicate that tropical cyclones (commonly known by the terms "hurricane," "typhoon," or simply "cyclone") will be more prevalent in the majority of areas, and the number of these storms that cause more damage will increase.
Refugees and the Economy
While some of the worst of these effects may not affect Connecticut directly, climate change is capable of causing 1.2 billion people to become so-called "climate refugees," who will probably flee to the places which aren't directly impacted by global warming. The world's economy, the insurance giant Swiss Re says, could decrease by 23 trillion dollars due to the crisis.
