Sugar Land Sociodemographic Analysis

This analysis is based on the following data sources:

Projections beyond the year 2022 were estimated by extrapolating existing trends from the 2010 Census and 2021 5-year ACS data. Trends are less certain when projecting beyond three years.

The following are important definitions for the at risk population analysis:

Wealth Index: The wealth index represents a scale of an area's wealth relative to the national level. An index of 100 represents wealth on par with the national average. An area with a wealth index below 100 has lower-than-average wealth, while an index above 100 identifies areas with above-average wealth.

When looking at Sugar Land's at risk population, 17 percent of households have members with disabilities, which is more than that of Fort Bend County (15 percent) and less than the state as a whole (23 percent). In addition, Sugar Land has a larger senior population (16 percent) compared to Fort Bend County (11 percent) and Texas (14 percent). Overall, Sugar Land's population is very diverse with 54 percent of the population speaking only English, while 56 percent also speak additional languages. In Sugar Land, 6 percent of the population speaks Spanish, 15 percent speaks an Indo-European language, 18 percent speaks an Asian-Pacific Island language, and 2 percent speak other languages not mentioned here.

Sugar Land's wealth index is much higher than the national average and compared to that of Fort Bend County and Texas. Moreover, when looking at the housing affordability index (HAI), Sugar Land is very affordable for its own residents; however, this does not mean that Sugar Land is more affordable for new residents trying to move to the city, as indicated by the high median home value. Sugar Land also has a small percentage of its residents living below the poverty level. Lastly, Sugar Land's population is very diverse. The diversity index of 75 translates to a probability of 75 percent that two people randomly chosen from the Sugar Land population would belong to different racial or ethnic groups. However, Sugar Land has a lower diversity index compared to Fort Bend County and the state as a whole.

In order to get a grasp on Sugar Land's future trends, it's important to understand where the population growth is coming from in both the State and County. According to data from 2021, Texas had a fertility rate of 60.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, which is lower than the rate of 77.4 seen in 2005. Over the past few decades, Fort Bend County has consistently attracted new residents, but the growth rate shows mixed patterns in terms of domestic and international migration. Between 2008-2012 and 2012-2016, the growth rate among those moving from a different county in Texas to Fort Bend was 13%, which then increased to 18% between 2012-2016 and 2016-2020. However, during the same periods, the out-migration from Fort Bend to other counties in Texas increased from 17% to 21%. The growth rate among those moving from different states increased by 40% between 2008-2012 and 2012-2016, but only increased by 5% between 2012-2016 and 2016-2020. The growth rate among those moving to different states increased from 2% to 13% between 2012-2016 and 2016-2020. Finally, international migration saw an increase of 85% between 2008-2012 and 2012-2016, but then declined by -2% between 2012-2016 and 2016-2020.

The percentage growth between 2020 and 2022 was particularly high in Texas and Florida. In Texas, Montgomery County grew by 9 percentage points, followed by Collin County and Polk County. Fort Bend County grew by 7 percentage points, while Harris County grew by 1 percentage point.

The implications of the post-pandemic population growth at the State-level in general and Fort Bend County, in particular, represent challenges and opportunities. The economic impact can lead to increased labor force participation and potentially stimulate growth if the economy can absorb the labor supply. Population growth in Fort Bend County can also increase the demand for infrastructure and services such as water, energy, transportation, housing, sanitation, fire/EMS, police, and communications while increasing the need to reduce the population's contribution to carbon emissions, which can exacerbate climate change. Moreover, the county's population growth can strain healthcare and school districts' service capacity, potentially resulting in disparities in health outcomes and educational opportunities.

The U.S. Census, through the American Community Survey, estimates the number of occupied housing units (Table B25002). The U.S. Census classifies a housing unit as occupied if it's where the people live during the interview or if they're briefly away for up to two months, like for a vacation or business trip. If everyone in the unit during the interview is staying for two months or less, the housing unit is labeled as vacant.

Based on housing tenure data, it appears that over the next three years, most growth in owner-occupied housing units will occur in areas outside of Sugar Land as development expands outward toward Richmond, Rosenberg, Needville, Fairchilds, and Pleak.

It is projected that between 2020 and 2026, there will be a significant increase in the number of renter-occupied units; this growth may be attributable mainly due to current and future home prices that make homeownership less attainable or affordable; as a consequence, potential home buyers may encounter difficulties saving for a down payment or qualifying for a mortgage. Furthermore, the growing demand for rental properties could increase rent, impacting residents' overall cost of living and creating a less stable housing market that affects the economic viability of the city, property values, and investment opportunities. From a planning perspective, the trend of renter vs. owner-occupied units across the County can influence public policy decisions, particularly those related to housing affordability, and the supply of rental housing, which includes public, affordable, and market housing, is a crucial consideration in housing policy discussions.

When comparing the median home value in Sugar Land to its surrounding cities from 2010 to 2021, Sugar Land's median home value is significantly higher and continues to increase. For example, although median home values in Missouri City and Houston increased at higher rates from 2020 to 2021, the median home value in Sugar Land in 2021 was still about $100,000 higher than that of Missouri City, Pearland, and Houston. As a result of Sugar Land's high median home values, young families and young adults looking to move to Houston and cities outside of the loop will gravitate more toward Richmond and Rosenberg, as housing in those areas is much more affordable.

Homebuying activity took a significant hit in 2020, as loan applications for home purchases plunged by 33 percentage points while refinancing applications skyrocketed by 137 percentage points. This shift in demand can be attributed to the pandemic-induced economic uncertainty and the ultra-low mortgage rates that spurred homeowners to refinance. Although there has been a slight uptick of 7 percentage points in home purchase applications, the latest data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act indicates that the recovery is still slow and uncertain.

The index considers the inverse of median household income and median home value, along with the percent of an individual's income spent on their mortgage, and ranges from 0 to 1. First, the percent of income spent on the mortgage is placed at the ideal point of 28%, which is the national average. Next, by using the inverse of variables, this indicates that a lower value of the variable is more suitable in the analysis. For example, a lower median home value is more affordable than a high median home value. A value closer to zero suggests less affordable areas, while a value closer to one suggests more affordable areas.

This index includes the percent of the population that is 65-69 years old, the percent of the population that is 30-34 years old, and the percent of the population that is 0-4 years old living in a particular area. Here, we utilize 0-4 year olds for the third generation as the national median average to give birth is 30 years old. Due to data availability, we cannot estimate that all three of these groups exist in one household; however, we can show the areas where three generations have a higher probability of living together. With this index, a value closer to zero suggests less suitable areas, while a value closer to one suggests more suitable areas.

Given the older composition of the city's population and the limited projected growth, Sugar Land's median household income and the number of owner-occupied housing units, based on the projections are expected to increase over the next five years. The projected annual growth of the population, however, for the next five years seems to be half of what the city experienced in the last decade.

As Sugar Land's population changes over the next couple of years, it is important to understand more about the people who live here and how that might change in the future. It is not just about understanding the people themselves but also how they connect with their surrounding areas, particularly Houston, where many of Sugar Land's residents work. This connection creates unique travel patterns that show how Sugar Land and Houston are linked while also emphasizing limited opportunities for Sugar Land's residents to develop employment-related communities. In the next section, we dive into these patterns and explore how Sugar Land and its surroundings are linked through daily commutes.

A comparison of the market segments in Sugar Land, Richmond, and Rosenberg reveals the unique characteristics of each city in terms of urbanicity and affluence. The Sugar Land market is predominantly suburban, with slightly over a quarter of households belonging to the second city category, while only a small percentage falls under urban centers. In contrast, the Richmond market consists mainly of second-city households, with nearly a third being part of suburban centers, and a small percentage residing in the town and rural segment. As for the Rosenberg market, it is primarily composed of second-city households, followed by town and rural households, with a small proportion belonging to suburban market segments.

Projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest no significant changes in terms of urbanicity and affluence between these cities given that there are no substantial changes in terms of population density, which is driven by economic opportunities that attract new industries and employers, housing availability and costs, land use planning (e.g., single vs. mixed-used zoning) and transportation and mobility infrastructure.

1. To encourage the retention of younger residents and attract new ones, it is essential to carefully consider housing and development opportunities that cater to their specific needs maximizing to the possible extent "15-minute communities" in which residents can access most of their daily needs within a 15-minute walk or bike ride from their homes.
2. Long commuting times underscore the potential advantages of mixed-use zoning communities, as they can effectively reduce the need for excessive driving beyond daily work commutes. The presence of essential amenities like grocery stores, shopping centers, and recreational spaces in close proximity to residential areas significantly diminishes the reliance on cars for various needs.
3. Given the aging population, exploring the potential benefits of allowing Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) as an alternative living arrangement is crucial, especially considering the limited availability and costs of assisted living facilities.
4. With the expansion of sister cities like Richmond and Rosenberg, Sugar Land may experience increased traffic and reduced mobility due to more land availability for development purposes, potentially turning it into a pass-by city. To maintain the city's livability, it is crucial to implement new transportation and mobility options and expand vital access roads, including US-90.
5. To gain a deeper understanding of the demographic challenges that lie ahead and the implications for the future of Sugar Land, we recommend conducting a public opinion poll among potential residents. This will aid in understanding the patterns highlighted in this analysis and help facilitate the evidence-based design, implementation, and monitoring of effective public policies for Sugar Land.