The 416 Fire

From June 1st to July 31st, the 416 returned fire to a landscape, without loss to lives or structures, that had experienced more than a century of fire-repression. The 416 was officially contained on July 31st and later controlled on October 5th. The  Burn Area Emergency Response  team (BAER) reported that over 98% of the fire burned on National Forest Service Land and less than 2% on private property.

Despite the long-term positive effects this fire will bring to the Hermosa Wilderness and the Hermosa Creek Special Management Area, the short-term effects have made local landscapes and water sources highly vulnerable to erosion, debris flows, and degraded water quality.

The name of the 416 Fire originated as it was the 416th incident call for the San Juan National Forest received by the Columbine Ranger District in Bayfield, Colorado in the spring of 2018.

This story map, created by  Mountain Studies Institute  (MSI), aims to answer many questions voiced by communities affected by the 416 Fire. 

MSI is an independent, nonprofit research center that investigates environmental issues within the San Juan Mountains and has a tradition of responding to community concerns related to changes in multiple watersheds, including the Animas River Watershed.

Teams at MSI provide education and research into the interactions between forest health, wildfires, and water supplies to help enhance understanding of these complex issues, monitor watershed recovery, develop mitigation and adaptive strategies to protect natural resources, and help us prepare for future disturbances.

"In the past few decades, we have accumulated enough science and experience to accept, in concept, that fire is an essential process in Rocky Mountain ecosystems." ~ William Baker

For the majority of the 20th century, we have prioritized the human timescale by striving to put out every wildfire. But this option has proven to be unsustainable. For forests historically adapted to frequent fire, the increase in fuels from a policy of fire suppression means fires burn hotter with more severe effects to vegetation, soils, watersheds, and wildlife. In addition to impacts from suppression, climate change is making fire more common and less predictable across forest types. 

Wildfire is a natural and necessary part of many ecosystems. On an ecosystem timescale, the disturbance caused by fire can increase available nutrients, spur regeneration, and promote diversity. On a human timescale, fire can threaten our homes, destroy places we love, fill skies with smoke, and blacken rivers.

Understanding how forests respond to disturbance events, such as fire, is a critical component of managing forests and imperative to informing land managers about how post-fire management decisions are influencing forest regeneration and health. Therefore tracking natural forest regeneration in these post-fire landscapes can help determine the effectiveness of certain decisions.

Twenty-five permanent sites were established by our Forest Team in 2019. An additional 35 sites were to be created by MSI in partnership Dr. Julie Korb of Fort Lewis College in 2020, but challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic has postponed research efforts until further notice.

Despite delays, our team intends to return to these sites annually to better understand regeneration potential of tree species across burn severities, successional plant species composition, and if areas treated with prescribed fire in 2008 differ from untreated areas.

To investigate impacts to and recovery of water quality and aquatic life following the 416 fire, we formed a research team consisting of scientists from  Colorado School of Mines  (CSM),  Rocky Mountain Research Station  (RMRS), and  MSI . In addition, a cross-boundary partnership with the  Rio Grande Watershed Emergency Action Coordination Team  (RWEACT) supplied critical water quality probes and radar instrumentation. These combined research team efforts enhanced partners' opportunities to leverage funding, utilize sampling and instrument equipment, conduct lab analysis, and share expertise.

We chose monitoring sites at locations within, upstream, and downstream of the burn area for comparison of impacted vs. unaffected sites, burn severity gradients, and differing sub-watershed conditions with forest health, fire history, and forest treatments.

When interpreting impacts to water quality and aquatic life, our team considers the context of existing watershed traits such as geology and hydrology, historical observations, and risks to designated uses that include drinking water, agriculture, and aquatic life. This helps us understand if post-fire conditions are unprecedented, pose risks to different water users or aquatic life, assess the duration of impacts, and track watershed recovery.

MSI seeks to enhance understanding of the recovery of river health and wildfire on a local, state and regional level. Currently, the state of Colorado suggests rivers generally recover from wildfire impacts after five years. Sharing the data and results of this study with agencies, research entities, and the public will provide additional evidence to determine if Colorado state’s recovery timeline is accurate and reasonable.

Preliminary results from 2018, 2019, and 2020 aquatic monitoring are summarized below. Please check back with this live resource for more updates on our 2021 results!

"Let us be good stewards of the Earth we inherited. All of us have to share the Earth's fragile ecosystems and precious resources, and each of us has a role to play in preserving them. If we are to go on living together on this earth, we must all be responsible for it." ~Kofi Annan

Thank you to all of our partners who have enriched our research and continue to help us study the effects of the 416 Fire!

•  Ashley Rust, Ph.D. and Terri Hogue, Ph.D.  (Colorado School of Mines) -  Wildfire Impacts on Water Quality, Insect, and Trout Populations in the Upper Rio Grande  and  Evaluating the Factors Responsible for Post-Fire Water Quality Response in Forests of the Western USA 
•  Charles Rhoades, Ph.D.  (U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station) -  Severe wildfire has long-term consequences for stream water quality 
• Jim White (Colorado Parks & Wildlife) -  Status of San Juan cutthroat Trout Post 416 Fire 
•  Julie Korb, Ph.D.  (Fort Lewis College) -  Effectiveness of restoration treatments for reducing fuels and increasing understory diversity in shrubby mixed-conifer forests of the southern Rocky Mountains, USA .
•  Michael Remke, Ph.D.  (Mountain Studies Institute) -  Familiar soil conditions help Pinus ponderosa seedlings cope with warming and drying climate 
•  Rio Grand Watershed Emergency Coordination Team  (RWEACT) - Collaborative team formed in 2013 after the West Fork Complex Fire to disperse emergency information about potential hazards and environmental restoration efforts for wildfire recovery.

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2. Cartier E.A. and Taylor L.L. 2019.  Living in a wildfire: The relationship between crisis management and community resilience in a tourism-based destination . Tourism Management Perspectives 34: 100635. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100635
3. Colorado River Research Group (2018, March).  When is Drought Not a Drought? Drought, Aridification, and the “New Normal” .
4. CDPHE. 2018. Regulation No. 31 -  The Basic Standards and Methodologies for Surface Water .
5. Keeley J. E. 2009.  Fire intensity, fire severity and burn severity: A brief review and suggested usage . International Journal of Wildland Fire. 18(1):116-126. DOI: 10.1071/WF07049
6. Lukas J., Barsugli J., Doesken N., Rangwala I., and Wolter K. 2014.  Climate change in Colorado: a synthesis to support water resources management and adaptation . University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.
7. Rhoades C.C., Minatre K.L., Pierson D.N., Fegel T.S., Cotrufo M.F., and Kelly, E.F. 2017.  Examining the potential of forest residue-based amendments for post-wildfire rehabilitation in Colorado, USA . Scientifica 2017: 4758316. DOI: 10.1155/2017/4758316
8. Rhoades C., Miller S., Covino T., Chow A., and McCormick F. 2017.  Stream Water Quality Concerns Linger Long After the Smoke Clears: Learning from Front Range Wildfires . Colorado Water. March/April 2017: 22-26.
9.  State of the Forest Report for the San Juan National Forest . 2019. Aspen Center for Environmental Studies and Mountain Studies Institute.