Vibrio Predictive Models
Providing Early Warnings for Potential Coastal Hazards
Photo by Ben Stern on Unsplash
What is Vibrio?
Vibrio spp. are bacteria that occur naturally in our coastal waters. Although cases are rare, Vibrio vulnificus infections stemming from water contact with open wounds or consumption can be serious and sometimes fatal.
The majority of the cases annually are associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Most are due to consuming raw or under cooked seafood, and usually results in self limiting gastroenteritis.
Learn more about Vibrio Predictive Models here:
To learn more about Vibrio from CDC:
Why is this important?
Knowing environmental conditions that stimulate rapid growth of Vibrio and knowing where and when to expect elevated concentrations of the pathogen, managers and oyster growers can make decisions to ensure oysters are harvested when they are safer to eat.
Working with other groups, we developed the ability to model and forecast when and where Vibrio may be present in our marine environment.
These tools provide early warning of potential coastal hazards and make people's lives safer.
- Photo by Aime Cox-Tennant on Unsplash
What We Do
Since 2005, working with federal, state, and academic partners we:
Monitor potentially pathogenic species of bacteria in the Mid-Atlantic region,
Determine environmental factors that govern their distribution,
Forecast Vibrio pathogen distribution, and conditions suitable for growth,
Better understand the ecology of the bacteria and implications for human health.
Image provided by NOAA
An assortment of predictive models and weather related tools have been assembled, primarily related to issues surrounding safe harvest of shellfish around the nation.
In partnership with the US Food and Drug Administration ( USFDA ), state and academic partners,
NOAA is working continuously through the Ecological Forecasting Roadmap to verify and improve model accuracy and resolution, and transition them to an operational state.
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Water Guidance - Chesapeake Bay
While cases are extremely rare, Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) is noted for its ability to cause serious wound infections from exposure to affected water. NOAA's predictive models, created from large scale sampling efforts in the Chesapeake Bay with the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS), provide the probability and early warning 24-48 hours in advance of occurrence of this potential pathogen throughout the Bay.
To learn more check out MarylandHealthy Beaches and nowCOAST
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Doubling Time of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters
This product uses surface air temperature from the National Digital Forecast Database to force a statistical growth rate equation for Vibrio parahaemolyticus. These maps are experimental and show a prediction of the doubling time of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters harvested from Puget Sound.The model shows land and water since the model is based on air temperature conditions once oysters are harvested from waters.
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Long Island Sound- Cooling Methods and Optimal Start Time to Harvest
The Vp growth rate or doubling time varies based on storage temperature. This graphic shows three different cooling strategies for oysters harvested from Milford CT.
Blue line represents rapid cooling in ice slurry, green line represents on-board refrigeration within 0.5 hours and red line represents oysters exposed to air temperature 5 hours before placed in refrigeration.
This tool is intended to assist oyster producers in choosing an appropriate cooling method and optimal start time of harvest, in order to achieve the lowest number of bacterial doublings when using a given cooling strategy.
Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Chesapeake Bay Oysters, Predicted Concentration.
Vibrio concentrations in oysters harvested from bottom waters of Chesapeake Bay are related to the temperature and salinity. This product uses the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System to force a statistical model ( USFDA 2005) to predict expected concentrations of Vp at the time of harvest.
Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Chesapeake Bay Oysters - Post-Harvest
Once an oyster is harvested, V.parahaemolyticus will continue to grow within the organism until it is placed under refrigeration and cooled to 50°F.
This model takes the average daily concentration of V.parahaemolyticus at time of harvest and calculates additional accumulation of the pathogen based on air temperature. The model begins at sunrise each day and projects post harvest growth out to 10 hours based on regionally adjusted, 1 KM air temperature predictions.
