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Understanding Flood Risk in Goshen
Deep dive into FEMA's Risk MAP assessment data for Goshen.
Introducing the Data
Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning or "Risk MAP", a project of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), assembles tools and reports for communities to understand their local risks from riverine flooding. These powerful data can be mapped to give us a look at the relative flood risks associated with the homes and businesses in our community.
On your first visit to this page, we highly recommend taking time to read and understand each data set as the information can be somewhat technical. Return visitor? Use the banner at the top of the page to review particular definitions or quickly locate the navigable map link in the "Explore the Data" section.
In this story map, the Goshen Stormwater Department pairs complex data with explanatory notes in hopes of arming Goshen residents with the tools needed to assess their personal risks from flooding.
Flood preparedness and risk reduction are becoming increasingly important as we head into an uncertain climate future. A changing climate means the likelihood of future flood events is ever-changing. Note that the data shown here depict a snapshot in time that is the best available for today's flood risks.
This story explores both flood maps that depict risk and those used to apply floodplain regulations. Navigate between the two sections to understand the differences and their appropriate uses.
Flood Risk
FEMA's Risk MAP data can help bolster our understanding of flood risks. "Risk" often has multiple components. In this context, a full understanding of risk considers both the likelihood of an event and the consequence of that event.
Likelihood - flood likelihood is evaluated by defining the percent chance of a certain flood intensity in any given year. Commonly, flood maps summarize boundaries by the 1% and 0.2% annual chance flood events.
Consequence - the consequence of flooding considers the damage suffered during a flood event and can often be much harder to predict, measure, and communicate. Variables such as type, cost, and critical uses of potentially damaged buildings and other infrastructure all factor into the degree of consequence during a flood event. Other factors that determine the degree of consequence include the pre-existing social and economic vulnerabilities of persons exposed to flooding and the fallout from disruptions to daily routines.
As you explore the FEMA data, it is important to note that the maps only represent riverine flooding—in other words, flooding along waterways. Goshen also experiences risks from localized flooding in areas outside of our floodplains. Localized flooding can be caused by extreme rain events and worsened by undersized or unmaintained storm sewer pipes and stormwater drainage systems (e.g. stormwater basins).
Take a quick tour of some of the tools available below. After the tour, find a link to a navigable map in the "Explore the Data" section where you can zoom in, toggle between layers, and otherwise explore the places that matter to you!
Regulatory Floodplain
FIRM Map Example
Regulatory floodplains exist as a way for communities to mitigate flood risks while allowing for safer development.
Regulatory floodplain maps summarize the boundaries of a certain likelihood flood and apply various regulations accordingly. FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) are seen as an authoritative source for this kind of map. Many federal, state, and local regulators rely upon published FIRMs to appropriately apply development regulations.
In Indiana, our floodplain regulation boundaries supplement FIRM maps with what the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) terms " best available data ." Thus, FIRMs serve only as a starting point. Developers should always consult their local floodplain manager to understand which regulations apply to them (the City of Goshen's floodplain manager is Rhonda Yoder, 574-534-3600 or rhondayoder@goshencity.com ).
Typical Regulatory Floodplain Definitions:
Typical maps depicting floodplain regulatory categories or insurance rate boundaries use generalized boundaries with zone designations that indicate different flood likelihoods or the degree of study for a particular area. For non-experts, the following terms can be useful for understanding flooding near them.
Map created by City staff for 2021 Climate Change and Stormwater Vulnerability Assessment
- Floodway – The floodway refers to the channel of a river and the adjacent land area that can accommodate a determined base flood. In other words, the floodway is the area where water will run deepest and fastest during a 1% annual chance flood. This area is more highly regulated than other parts of the floodplain. In Indiana, no development can occur in the floodway without approval from the IDNR.
- 1% Annual Chance Floodplain – The 1% annual chance floodplain refers to the entire extent of floodwaters during a 1% annual chance base flood event. Some older maps may refer to this area as the 100-year floodplain. The area includes the floodway and other inundated areas where floodwater is shallower and slower during a base flood event. Areas outside the floodway, but still within the 1% floodplain, are also called the "flood fringe". Development in this area is more highly regulated for floodproofing measures and other aspects than the rest of the City.
- 0.2% Annual Chance Floodplain – The 0.2% annual chance floodplain refers to the extent of floodwaters during a 0.2% annual chance flood. Some older maps may refer to this area as the 500-year floodplain. With climatic changes, many experts now consider the 0.2% annual chance flood as something closer to a 1% annual chance flood. In Goshen, this area is currently not considered part of the regulatory floodplain and does not have flood-based development restrictions.
- Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) – This term comes from FEMA and includes a particular set of zonal designations. For our purposes, it can be considered as somewhat interchangeable with the 1% annual chance flood event.
Explore the Data
Got a handle on how floodplain data works? Want to explore the flood risks associated with your home or favorite business?
Want more information? FEMA's Risk MAP products also includes a written "Flood Risk Report" for the entire St. Joseph Watershed. The report includes information about how FEMA developed the data sets explored here and includes analysis of scenario-based flood loss estimates. Find the report concerning Indiana communities in the watershed on the City of Goshen flood zone webpage.
For more information on localize climate change predictions check out the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment .
Have some GIS skills and want to explore the raw data yourself? All data used in this story was obtained through FEMA's map services center. Visit msc.fema.gov/portal/advanceSearch , search your location of interest, and download the "Flood Risk Database" found under "Flood Risk Products." The data set includes far more information than what we featured for this story, check out this helpful guide on what's included in the dataset.
Still having trouble understanding what it all means? Please reach out to Mattie Lehman in the City of Goshen Stormwater Department (mattielehman@goshencity.com) with any questions!