Which U.S. State is Naturally the Safest?

Each state in the USA comes with its own dangers, whether that be crime, wild animals, or weather. Before starting this project, I wanted to create a system that ranks each state based on their "natural safety", that is, their safety in relation to weather and natural disasters.

I took into consideration 5 different types of weather events: Tornados, Floods, Blizzards, Wildfires, and Hurricanes.

Using historical weather data, I was able to calculate the average number of deaths for each type of event. Then I looked at each state and calculated their average (per-year) event occurrences and applied each respective death rate to estimate the number of deaths for any given year. The results may surprise you!

Let's begin by looking at 5 different states and what makes them important.

On average, the state of Iowa records 146 tornados per year which ranks #1 in the entire country. It is one of only two states averaging over 100 tornados per year. The average tornado in the United States kills 0.070 people which doesn't seem like a lot, but over 1,500 tornados occur each year.

Each year, Virginia averages 212 floods. The state is very prone to flooding due to abundant rainfall (thanks to north-moving tropical systems from its south) and large water runoff from surrounding states as said water heads to the Atlantic Ocean. The average flood in the U.S. kills 0.006 people, which is far less than tornados. However, there are over 2,000 floods per year in America (and that doesn't include "flash floods").

California averages 69 wildfires per year, nearly double the amount of the second-most state. In recent years, this issue has been increasing as climate change and human geography have led to droughts and water scarcity. This increasing dryness is increasing the risk of wildfires in every state. The average wildfire in the U.S. kills 0.028 people; much lower than tornados, but slightly higher than floods.

While it technically is ranked second, Alaska records 51 blizzards per year. Ranked first is Iowa, but they already hold the "most tornados" title and have a more lenient definition of what a blizzard is. Alaska averages over 64 inches (5.3 feet!) of snow each year and is the coldest state in the United States. The average blizzard in America kills 0.012 people, placing it below tornados and wildfires in terms of danger, but above floods.

Last, but not least, we have Florida. Florida ranks #1 in hurricanes, coming in at 0.72 per year (nearly double the second-place state). Of course this doesn't seem like much at all, but the danger level is extremely high. The average hurricane in the U.S. kills 15.19 people; way higher than all the other events combined. This is a large issue today, as the number of hurricanes per year is rising due to warming ocean temperatures.

Using the found information, I created an equation that calculates the expected deaths for each state as a result of tornados, floods, wildfires, blizzards, and hurricanes:

expected deaths = (deaths per tornado) (tornado count)+(deaths per flood) (flood count) + ...

From the table, we can see the Hawaii is ranked #1 in safety, e.g. Hawaii has the lowest expected deaths per year caused by tornados, floods, wildfires, blizzards, and hurricanes.

This makes sense, considering that Hawaii averages zero recorded floods, tornados, blizzards, and hurricanes. They only average 3 wildfires per year, thus the small value for expected deaths per year.

On the flip side, we can see that #50 ranked Texas is the most dangerous state to live in. We could expect 14.5 people to die each year due to tornados, floods, wildfires, blizzards, and hurricanes.

This again makes sense. Not only is Texas such a large state, it also experiences tornados, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes. The only weather events it lacks are blizzards.

In the end, it appears that Hawaii is the safest state to live in, while Texas is the most dangerous state to live in with respect to natural disasters.

Texas's combination of tornados, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes create a dangerous environment for people to live in, while Hawaii's lack of tornados, floods, blizzards, and hurricanes.

It is important to note that my calculations obviously do not include many other natural disasters such as earthquakes or tsunamis, which could largely change the results if included. Additionally, the data is generalized at the state level which can skew the overall findings. For example, a county in North Texas may be a lot safer than a county in South Texas (due to hurricanes), but they get represented the same.