Child Care in Cuyahoga County

A healthy and right-sized child care delivery system is critical to both child development and a high-functioning workforce. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic disruptions have altered the already fragile and tenuous child care service delivery landscape nationally (Hogan & Kim, 2020). The demand for child care has shifted tremendously as a result of unprecedented unemployment in specific sectors and demographic groups, K-5 school closures, an increased demand for essential services, and practices and restrictions related to preventing virus transmission. The supply of child care has also decreased due to regulated capacity levels, child care workforce illness, and programmatic closures. All of these complex factors interact and the disparate geographic impacts to our community are currently not well-understood.

To gain a more comprehensive understanding of these market shocks, this Story Map provides a detailed geographical analysis of observed changes to the demand and supply for child care services between September 2019 and September 2020 in Cuyahoga County, Ohio.

Child care programs in the county are surveyed quarterly by  Starting Point  (the regional child care resource and referral agency). For this analysis, those providers that responded to the September 2019 and September 2020 surveys were included. Both licensed child care centers (LCC) and family child care homes (FCCH) were included in the survey ( click here for more information about the distinction between these two types ). Due to pandemic restrictions and uncertainty around delivery mode in September 2020, programs operated by the Ohio Department of Education were not surveyed in September 2020. Please see the Technical notes section for more details on the survey sample.

As part of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Urban Institute's  "Using Data to Inform Local Decisions on COVID-19 Response and Recovery" , this effort, led by Starting Point in collaboration with the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development at Case Western Reserve University's Jack, Joseph and Morton Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, explores the impact of COVID-19 on the child care delivery system in Cuyahoga County and provides local stakeholders with information intended to help them respond effectively and equitably to the pandemic.

The point plot above shows the location of each provider. Family child care homes (FCCH) are represented with an orange point while licensed child care centers (LCC) are represented with a blue point. When a point is selected, a pop-up with provider specific information will appear, showing provider type, zip code, neighborhood, rating, operation status, and site name. The dispersion of the two provider types appears to be uniform within the City of Cleveland and outer ring suburbs. Fewer family child care homes compared to licensed child care centers are located on the edges of the county in the outer ring suburbs.

The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting impacts on the economy have dealt a blow to the child care delivery system in Cuyahoga County. The impacts vary across place and among differing demographic groups within the community. This analysis documents changes occurring in enrollment and capacity of child care providers between September 2019 and September 2020 and contextualizes these changes with relevant employment and economic metrics. We highlight specific neighborhoods (See Communities in Focus) to demonstrate the divergent ways the pandemic and related impacts on child care appear to be manifesting. It will be important in the coming months to continue to track the metrics highlighted in this report to ensure that recovery is equitable across our community.

How did enrollment of children aged 0 to 5 change between September 2019 and September 2020?

Overall, enrollment of children aged 0 to 5 dropped across the county by more than 43 percent between September 2019 and September 2020 among surveyed providers. Most of the declines in enrollment occurred in licensed child care centers (LCC). Family child care homes (FCCH) experienced a decline in enrollment, but far less drastic compared to licensed child care centers (LCC).

A subgroup of child care use can be seen by looking at changes in the number of subsidies utilized. Child care subsidies provided to parents by  Cuyahoga County’s Child Care Assistance Program  can be used as a marker of child care utilization for low income families. We find that the number of children relying upon a subsidy is down considerably in recent months. Even at its highest point in the 6 months since reopening, at least 2,000 fewer subsidies were used compared to the lowest point in the 14 months prior to the pandemic.

How did child care provider capacity to serve children aged 0 to 5 change between September 2019 and September 2020?

Overall, provider capacity for children aged 0 to 5 dropped across the county by more than 29% between September 2019 and September 2020 among surveyed providers. Most of the declines in enrollment occurred in licensed child care centers (LCC). Family child care homes (FCCH) experienced a decline in enrollment, but less drastic. The City of Cleveland experienced a steeper decline in capacity than did providers in the surrounding suburbs (37% compared to 25% respectively). The Cleveland public schools have been operating virtually this school-year, and part of the steeper decrease in capacity for children aged 0 to 5 within the City could be driven by providers adapting to serve school-aged children. Overall, 36% of providers surveyed reported operating at reduced capacity in September 2020.

How did the share of available seats filled for children 0 to 5 change between September 2019 and September 2020?

Among surveyed providers, enrollment of children aged 0 to 5 in our community, on average, has declined more than has capacity, indicating a relatively sharp decline in demand relative to supply. This can be approximated by measuring and comparing the percent of available seats filled at the two time periods. Although the community of surveyed providers as a whole experienced a decline in the share of available seats filled (down nearly 20%), the decline was far steeper in the surrounding community (26%) than it was in the City of Cleveland (8%). The sharper decline in capacity within the City of Cleveland relative to the surrounding community can explain this effect.

Did the age distribution of children served by child care providers change between September 2019 and September 2020?

Expanding the analysis to include child care delivery to school-aged children revealed a key shift in the demographics of children served between September 2019 and September 2020. More school-aged children were enrolled in child care as a proportion of enrollment in September 2020 than in September 2019. This can likely be explained by virtual learning in K-5 schools and child care facilities rising to meet working parents' need for daytime care for children aged 6-10. At the same-time, a relatively steep decline in enrollment among infants aged 0-17 months occurred across the study period.

How are essential and "COVID-impacted" workers distributed throughout our community?

The proportion of the workforce employed in occupations deemed "essential" and "COVID-impacted" varies considerably across our region resulting in uneven impacts of the pandemic on the local labor market. Workers in health care and other occupations deemed " essential " by the Department of Homeland Security have experienced increasing demands for their expertise during this time, and increased risk among those front-line essential workers in contracting COVID-19. On the other hand, workers in retail, hospitality, entertainment, etc. have experienced unexpected and far-reaching unemployment during this time. These are workers in "COVID-impacted" industries. In our community women are more likely, in general, to be employed in "COVID-impacted" occupations, whereas men are more likely to be employed in "essential" occupations. The shocks to the economy have implications for the demand for child care. We might expect essential workers to continue to need child care in the face of a more limited supply, and we might expect high unemployment among working parents to decrease demand for child care as parents may no longer be able to afford and/or need care outside the home.

Looking ahead

As the challenges stemming from the pandemic continue to be revealed over time, it will be important to keep an eye on the following trends and metrics to ensure that our recovery is well-informed, strategic, and equitable:

• Evaluate the needs and adaptations of FCCH providers relative to LCC providers. Their needs, their ability to adapt, and populations they serve have diverged throughout this pandemic in considerable ways. Continuing to ensure that programs have the resources they need to meet the unique demands of the families they serve and their own personnel will be critical in navigating this troubling time.
• Further explore the changing demographics of children attending child care facilities. With continued uncertainty about the K-5 learning options, it is clear that providers have adapted by serving an increasing proportion of school-aged children during the pandemic. Serving a different mix of children with distinct developmental needs is an emerging trend among providers and paying attention to this moving forward could be helpful as programs adapt.
• Continue to track monthly child care subsidy usage in the County. The monthly use has been decreasing since August and even at its highest point in the last 6 months it is still at least 2,000 subsidies fewer than the previous 6 months.
• Pay attention to how the impacts of the pandemic are manifesting in divergent ways across our communities. It will be important to keep a geographic focus to ensure that communities that have traditionally experienced challenges due to disinvestment and systemic racism are prioritized in the recovery period so that existing inequalities are not exacerbated.
• Consider the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on women in recovery efforts. Nationally, it has been well-documented that women are bearing the brunt of the economic burden in the pandemic due to challenges associated with the availability of, the affordability of, and the perceived safety of child care. In addition, women are more likely to be employed in jobs that are front-line and at-risk for elimination -- in particular, in Ohio, women make-up 95% of workers in child care settings (Groundwork Ohio, 2020). Attention needs to be paid to this national phenomenon and how it is manifesting locally. Communities with higher than average shares of female-headed households, in particular, should be paying close attention to these trends and ensuring that appropriate supports are in place for women and children.
• Garner the resources needed to ensure that children are getting the care that they need to enrich their early lives. It is well-documented that access to high-quality child care and preschool is critical for early childhood development. The change in enrollment observed in this study period is concerning from a child development perspective.

Between March 13, 2020 and August 25th, 2020 the child care delivery market was impacted by numerous state-level policy changes and orders related to the pandemic. The timeline below provides a glimpse into the events shaping the delivery of service during this time. A more detailed account can be found by clicking on the link below the timeline graphic.

The pandemic has altered the demand for child care due to community fear of virus transmission, K-5 school closures, an increased demand for essential services, and high rates of unemployment in specific sectors and among specific demographic groups. As of July 2020, in a national survey of child care providers, enrollment in child care was down 67 percent (Hogan & Kim, 2020).

This section takes a detailed look at changes in child care enrollment among children aged 0-5 between September 2019 and September 2020. Child care subsidy usage throughout a similar time period is also explored. In addition, details from the child care provider survey in September 2020 provide insight into provider perspectives on changing demand as a result of the pandemic.

Among surveyed providers, enrollment in nearly all neighborhoods and municipalities is significantly reduced for children aged 0 to 5 between September 2019 and September 2020. The average municipality/neighborhood experienced a 40 percent decline in enrollment over this period. Click on municipalities within the map for specific details.

A subgroup of child care use can be seen by looking at changes in the number of subsidies utilized.  Cuyahoga County’s Child Care Assistance Program  provides subsidies to caregivers based on family size and income level and can be used as a marker of child care utilization for low income families. In order to qualify for a subsidy for their child, a parent or guardian must either have a job or be in school. The chart to the left shows child care subsidy use within Cuyahoga County from January 2019 through October 2020. Prior to March 2020, between 20,000 and 21,500 children used a child care subsidy each month.

March through May 2020 - The governor issues an executive order closing all child care programs in Ohio effective March 25, 2020. Beginning March 26, 2020, children attending child care were required to be enrolled in a program that was licensed as a Temporary Pandemic Child Care Program. Children enrolled also were required to be children of employees classified as health, safety, or essential workers as defined by the Ohio Governor's Office. Child care programs operating as Temporary Pandemic Child Care Programs submitted enrollment and verification documents (including approval for Publicly Funded Child Care (PFCC)) directly to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services directly via spreadsheet. Payment was issued based on children's enrollment, not attendance. The TAP system, which is used by ODJFS to manage the enrollment, attendance, and payment for PFCC was not used during this time. Families and child care programs transitioned back to the TAP system May 31, 2020. This temporary change in payment processing could account for the gap in subsidies reported in April and May 2020 in the chart above.

After May 31, 2020, subsidy usage appears to never fully rebound to levels observed prior to the March 25th Executive Order. Even at its highest point in the 6 months since reopening at the end of May, at least 2,000 fewer subsidies were used than the lowest point in the 14 months prior to the pandemic.

As part of the September 2020 Starting Point quarterly survey, providers were asked about how families enrolled in their programs have responded to the pandemic. In general, licensed child care center (LCC) providers had considerably more concerns to express in response to these questions than did those from family child care homes (FCCH). LCC providers reported low enrollment numbers due to pandemic ratios and competing child care centers as a source of concern. Some providers highlighted that parents were taking care of kids at home while working (n=391) or that parents were not working (n=369). Equally common were responses indicating that friends, neighbors, or other family members were providing care during this time (n=363). Some providers (n=38) indicated that parents were essential workers or continued going to work and their children continued coming to the program throughout the pandemic.

When providers were asked about their own concerns regarding returning to work, COVID-19 exposure was the most common response (n=526). Respondents were concerned about bringing the virus home to their families or exposing their families to the novel coronavirus through in-home child care. Approximately 95 providers elaborated on their COVID-19-related health concerns with reopening. Providers were also worried about requiring children to wear masks all day long and the ability for young children to learn facial expressions with masked staff and providers (n=409).

Responding providers emphasized that parents were principally worried about exposure to the novel coronavirus (n=460). Secondary concerns included other health hazards, problematic work schedules, staffing issues, and difficulty paying for child care. A few said parents were concerned about remote learning for school-aged children (n=3) and some were worried about having to pay co-pays. Some providers mentioned concerns about new families joining the program and not being able to enter the building during drop off (parents are concerned that not being able to do so would prevent them from building relationships with teachers, seeing the facility, and ensuring that their children are comfortable). Approximately 15 providers mentioned that parents were excited to return or were willing to deal with the changes because they needed child care so they could return to work.

The supply of child care across the area during the pandemic was constrained by social distancing and capacity-level requirements  put in place by the state , as well as providers’ limitations based upon staffing and resources. As of July 2020, in a national survey of child care providers, about two out of five child care providers reported that they would need to shut down permanently without additional public assistance (Hogan & Kim, 2020).

The following section reports upon changes in reported capacity for children aged 0 to 5 among surveyed providers between September 2019 and September 2020 in Cuyahoga County. Changes in operating status among responding providers is also explored along with provider reflections on the factors underlying their ability to provide care during the pandemic.

Among surveyed providers, the capacity in most neighborhoods and municipalities is significantly reduced between September 2019 and September 2020. The average municipality/neighborhood experienced a 27 percent decline in capacity over this period. Click on municipalities within the map for specific details.

From the provider respondents to the September 2020 survey:

• 68.1% reported their operation status as "Regular Capacity Open" (92.7% among FCCH compared to 47.0% among LCC)
• 28.6% reported their operation status as "Reduced Capacity Open"(Only 3.4% among FCCH compared to 50.1% among LCC)
• 2.2% reported their operation status as "Temporarily Closed"
• 1.1% reported their operation status as "Permanently Closed"

LCCs were far more likely to report reductions in capacity than FCCH. Broken down by center type, 92.7% of FCCH reported being Regular Open compared to 47.0% of LCCs. Fewer FCCHs (3.4%) reported being at Reduced Open capacity compared to 50.1% of LCCs who reported the same operation status. We suspect that the estimates of temporary and permanent closure are underestimates as our sample only includes providers who responded to both the 2019 and 2020 surveys -- closed providers were harder to contact in 2020 and thereby less likely to have responded to the survey.

As part of the September 2020 Starting Point child care provider survey, providers were questioned about their ability to provide child care during the pandemic, specifically the effects of the pandemic on their programs, and their concerns about returning to work. They expressed difficulty in hiring staff, challenges associated with caring for school-aged children with virtual learning, increased work responsibilities but no increased pay, and reduced revenue. Generally, LCC providers reported more pandemic-linked effects compared to FCCH providers. LCC providers (n=17) emphasized challenges with hiring or retaining staff. FCCH providers rarely mentioned staff-related concerns. Many providers were concerned about financial impacts like increased expenses (n=478) and loss of income (n=475).

In this section we calculate and discuss the change in the percent of available seats filled by children aged 0 to 5 among surveyed providers between September 2019 and September 2020. As a general rule, a provider operating with at least 85% of seats filled represents a healthy and sustainable program. At the municipality/neighborhood-level, we find that even in September of 2019, many of the surveyed providers were filling fewer than 85% of their available seats - the average percent of seats filled was 71%.

If the percentage of available seats filled for a municipality or neighborhood changes between September 2019 and September 2020, it could be due to multiple factors. For example, if the percentage of filled seats increases, that means that in 2020, proportionally more seats were filled out of the total available seats in the community. It does not indicate that there were more or less seats, just that the enrollment and capacity was closer aligned in 2020 than in 2019. The percentage of available seats can increase if:

• enrollment increased more steeply than capacity,
• enrollment declined less than capacity, or
• enrollment increased while capacity stayed constant or decreased.

On the other hand, if the percentage of available seats in a municipality or neighborhood is lower in 2020 compared to 2019, that means that in 2020, proportionally fewer seats were filled out of the total available seats in the community. The percentage of available slots can decrease if:

• enrollment increased less steeply than capacity,
• enrollment declined more than capacity, or
• enrollment decreased while capacity stayed constant or increased.

Both increases and decreases in the percentage of available seats filled occurred among surveyed providers between September 2019 and September 2020. Given the reasons listed above, any changes to the percentage of available seats must be considered within the context of changes to both enrollment and capacity. Click on individual municipalities/neighborhoods within the map to see changes to the percentage of available seats over the study period.

Although variation exists throughout the community with respect to the change in available seats filled over the study period, in general the community experienced a large decline in the percentage of available seats filled between September 2019 and September 2020--declining from over 70% in September 2019 to less than 57% in September 2020. Given that 85% is considered the industry standard for sustainability, surveyed providers are currently facing a sustainability crisis that could result in increasing program closures over the coming months if trends do not reverse.

The preceding analyses focus exclusively on the 0 to 5 population of children served by surveyed providers. However, due to K-5 school closures (virtual delivery) that have been in place across much of the County (in particular within the City of Cleveland, as CMSD schools have been operating virtually since September) child care providers have adapted to the increased need to provide care for school-aged children during this time.

This section takes a detailed look at the age distribution among providers including school-aged children between September 2019 and September 2020. There has been a clear increase in demand for care for school-aged children and a decrease in demand for infant care.

Overall, among all children aged 0-10 in surveyed child care settings (n=661), between September 2019 and September 2020:

• Enrollment declined by 39.5% (Only 5.5% among FCCH compared to 42.3% among LCC)
• Capacity declined by 28.9% (Only 13.0% among FCCH compared to 30.6% among LCC)

Although both licensed child care centers (LCC) and family child care home (FCCH) provider types experienced declines in enrollment and capacity, FCCH enrollment declined less than capacity and by a smaller margin in comparison to LCC’s where enrollment declined more than capacity. This resulted in a relative shortage of slots in FCCH compared to LCC in September 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic period.

An analysis of the share of available seats filled depicts a key shift in the age distribution among child care providers during the pandemic. Looking across all providers, we see that the share of available seats filled was relatively similar across age groups - 0-17 months, 18-35 months, 3-5 years, and 5-10 years - in September 2019, hovering around 70%. During the pandemic period we see drastic changes by age group, with the share of available seats filled remaining relatively stable among school-aged children (5-10 years) with a steep decline in the share of available seats filled among other age groups, particularly among infants (0-17 months). This is likely driven by the need for child care for school-age children learning virtually and parents of infants opting to keep children home.

Looking at FCCH and LCC separately we see somewhat divergent patterns. In the pre-pandemic period, LCCs had a relatively higher share of their slots filled, particularly among the 3-to 5-year old age group. This no longer appears to be true during the pandemic period as the share of available seats filled is now highest among the school-aged children. The drop in the share of seats filled is most precipitous among the 0-17 month group.

Among FCCH in the pre-pandemic period the share of available seats filled for infants, toddlers and preschoolers was lower than in LCC indicating relatively less demand for available child care slots in FCCH than LCC. During the pandemic, however, although we see a decline in the share of available seats filled for infants and toddlers, the share of filled seats remained relatively stable relative to what occurred in LCC indicating that FCCH have been able to weather the pandemic without as much disruption to their enrollment to capacity balance. Prior to the pandemic, the share of available seats filled by school-aged children in FCCH roughly mirrored the share in LCC. As of September 2020, however, we see that more than 100% of available seats for school-aged children in FCCH were filled indicating that demand was exceeding supply.

Breaking the % of available seats filled by both age-served and program-type reveals a more nuanced picture of programmatic response to the pandemic and relative demand. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching and uneven impacts on the labor market. Workers in health care and other occupations deemed " essential " by the Department of Homeland Security have experienced increasing demands for their expertise during this time, and increased risk of contracting COVID-19 among those front-line essential workers. On the other hand, workers in retail, hospitality, entertainment, etc. have experienced unexpected and far-reaching unemployment during this time. These are workers in "COVID-impacted" industries. The shocks to the economy have implications for the demand for childcare as we might expect essential workers to continue to need childcare in the face of a more limited supply, and we might expect high unemployment among working parents to decrease demand for child care as parents may no longer be able to afford and/or need care outside the home.

To understand the concentration and spatial distribution of essential workers and workers in COVID-impacted industries in Cuyahoga County, we relied upon U.S. Census 2019 ACS 5-year estimates to calculate the share of each type of worker by neighborhood (See Technical notes for more description of the method).

Female workers have been particularly hard-hit in this recession as they are more likely to be employed in COVID-impacted industries and are more likely to be taking on child care responsibilities for their children than are men (U.S Census Bureau, 2020; Collins et al., 2020; Cajner et al. , 2020; Kurtz, 2021). In addition, women make up 95% of the workers in child care settings (Groundwork Ohio, 2020).

In a recent study of the impact of COVID-19 on minority unemployment, researchers find that during the early months of the pandemic, minority unemployment did not increase as much as would be expected, however; minority unemployment appears to be stagnating in more recent months relative to unemployment for white workers (Couch et al., 2020). Given that Cleveland is one of the most racially segregated cities in the nation (Frey, 2019), it will be important to keep an eye on differential impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment throughout the remaining months of the pandemic and afterwards.

In the neighborhoods and municipalities studied, essential workers are estimated to make up between 40 and 70 percent of the labor force with the highest percentages located on the edges of the City of Cleveland. Three Cleveland neighborhoods have more than 65% of their workforce estimated as essential workers: Buckeye-Woodhill (69.3%), Euclid-Green (65.5%), and Stockyard (65.3%).

The map below shows that the male workforce is composed of a much higher percentage of essential workers compared to the female workforce, particularly in the outer neighborhoods of Cleveland and the inner ring suburbs. Four municipalities have a greater than 20 percentage point difference between the male and female essential workforce estimates -- Brook Park (69.3% of male workforce, 44.6% of female workforce), Newburgh Heights (62.9% of male workforce, 41.5% of female workforce), Bedford (65.7% of male workforce, 43.7% of female workforce), and Garfield Heights (67.3% of male workforce, 46.0% of female workforce).

Considering how the prevalence of essential workers varies between the male and female workforce is important in the context of child care availability. As child care capacity and enrollment plummeted during the pandemic, both because of restrictions on providers as well as concern from parents as discussed previously, male essential workers may not have had the flexibility to make adjustments to their work requirements. Women are already more likely to take on the bulk of caregiving, and the effects of the pandemic on professional child care likely compounded the need for female, non-essential workers to shoulder the burden of increased caregiving responsibilities and altered work schedules.

Estimated share of essential workers relative to the total number of workers, male compared to female, by neighborhood and municipality

Workers in COVID-impacted industries are estimated to make up between 10 and 30 percent of the labor force in all of the neighborhoods in Cleveland and municipalities in Cuyahoga County; and all communities with 20% or greater workers in COVID-impacted industries are located within the City of Cleveland. The locations with the three highest percentages of workers in COVID-impacted industries are Cleveland neighborhoods Central (30.1%), Goodrich-Kirtland Park (30.1%), and Brooklyn Centre (29.5%). The neighborhoods most affected are areas that were already distressed prior to the pandemic. In the Central neighborhood, for example, according to 2015-2019 ACS 5-year estimates, 63.7% of households are receiving Food Stamps/SNAP, 56.6% of households do not have internet access, and 85.7% of people have an income below 200% poverty. The pandemic's effect on workers in COVID-impacted industries is likely further exacerbating existing inequalities in the hardest hit neighborhoods in the city.

In contrast to the essential workforce make-up, a greater percentage of women are estimated to be workers in COVID-impacted industries compared to men. This means that women are more likely to be at risk of losing their job during the pandemic. This issue is compounded by the fact that neighborhoods with high percentages of female workers in COVID-impacted industries also have high percentages of female-headed households with children under 18 according to 2015-2019 ACS 5-year estimates. In the Central neighborhood, for example, 86.6% of households are headed by a single female parent. If a female worker is more likely to be both a worker in a COVID-impacted industry and a single parent, suffering job loss in the pandemic is even more devastating because there is no assurance of another provider in the household.

Estimated share of workers in COVID-impacted industries relative to the total number of workers, male compared to female, by neighborhood and municipality

The  DEEP-MAPS Project  applies labor force statistics calculated with combined data from the Current Population Survey, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and the American Community Survey to census tract-level geographies. The result are localized estimates of unemployment and labor force participation (Ghitza & Steitz, 2020). The interactive map below displays the estimated unemployment rate per census tract in Cuyahoga County. When the play button under the month option is selected, the monthly spread of unemployment can be stepped through starting pre-pandemic in January 2020 until October 2020. Playing through the months since January 2020 reveals the deep devastation in the late spring through the summer in Cuyahoga County. By Fall 2020, as the economy re-opened, many communities appear to be returning to pre-pandemic unemployment levels, but severe unemployment still persists, predominantly on the east side of Cleveland in neighborhoods that have historically experienced disinvestment as a result of systemic racism.

The interactive map can be altered to estimate different employment measures, time trends, and demographic attributes by selecting various drop-down options on the right control panel.

In this section we have chosen a handful of communities to demonstrate the variation in the impact of the pandemic as it relates to child care throughout our community. Neighborhoods were chosen to represent variation in terms of location, demographic and labor market make-up, and the shifts observed in child care capacity and enrollment between September 2019 and September 2020. The intent is to explore the range of experiences and demonstrate the geographic variability that exists. This variability will be important to keep in mind as resources are distributed and strategies put in place to repair damages to the child care delivery system moving forward.

Surveyed providers in the Stockyard neighborhood experienced stable child care capacity for children aged 0 to 5 from September 2019 through September 2020 compared to the average for the broader area, but this neighborhood experienced relatively sizable declines in child care enrollment over the same time leading to a large decrease in the share of seats filled. As of September 2020, this community was experiencing a large surplus in available child care relative to the enrollment of children.

On average, residents of this community are more likely to be in poverty and have lower educational attainment compared to the City of Cleveland. This community also employs a larger than average share of essential workers.

Goodrich-Kirtland Park has a smaller-than-average child population compared to other neighborhoods within the City of Cleveland and surveyed providers experienced a relatively large decrease in its child care capacity for children aged 0 to 5 between September 2019 and September 2020. Although enrollment declined somewhat, capacity declined much more leading to a sizable increase in the share of available seats filled for this community. As of September 2020, Goodrich-Kirtland Park was experiencing a shortage of available child care relative to the enrollment of children.

Goodrich-Kirtland Park is a neighborhood with higher than average poverty and lower educational attainment than the average for the City of Cleveland. A larger share of residents of this neighborhood are employed in industries deemed "COVID-impacted" and are at-risk for unemployment during the pandemic. In particular, 36% of the female workforce in Goodrich-Kirtland Park is employed in a COVID-impacted industry which is considerably higher than the average for the City of Cleveland.

The Central neighborhood is mostly made-up of non-Hispanic Black residents and has a relatively young population with a higher proportion of its total population being under 17 years of age than the average for the City of Cleveland. This community, as a result of historic disinvestment and systemic racism, has some of the highest poverty and lowest educational attainment in the City. Less than half of the population has access to the internet and 64% of households receive Food Stamps.

In the Central neighborhood, eighty-seven percent of households with children under 18 are headed by females. Therefore, we would expect that any shocks to the economy that disproportionately impact women would be felt more acutely in this community. Furthermore, residents of Central are much more likely to be employed in COVID-impacted industries where high unemployment pervades during the pandemic.

Both enrollment and capacity for children aged 0 to 5 declined at slightly higher-than-average rates among surveyed providers during the September 2019 to September 2020 period indicating a shrinkage of the overall child care market in Central.

Lyndhurst is largely made up of residents identifying as White, with relatively low poverty levels and a relatively small population of children. Lyndhurst is also a highly educated community. The Lyndhurst community has a low share of its workforce in COVID-impacted industries or essential occupations and there are fewer than average female-headed households with children under 18 years. 

Between September of 2019 and September of 2020, surveyed providers in Lyndhurst experienced a very steep decline in the enrollment of children aged 0 to 5 relative to the decline experienced in capacity. As a result, as of September 2020, the child care market in Lyndhurst experienced shrinkage but also had a surplus of available seats due to the congruent decline in enrollment.

Parma is a middle class, mostly white, highly populated city to the southwest of Cleveland. This suburb has a population of children that is slightly lower than average. The community has lower poverty levels than average for Cuyahoga County. With respect to the workforce, Parma's share of essential and COVID-impacted workers largely mirrors that of the county as a whole.

Among surveyed child care providers, there was a smaller than average decrease in capacity for children aged 0-5 between September 2019 and September 2020. At the same time, Parma also experienced a slightly higher than average decline in enrollment compared to the rest of the community. As a result, the share of available seats filled declined at a rate that mirrors what was happening among surveyed providers at the county-level.

Warrensville Heights is a suburb to the south east of Cleveland with a mostly non-Hispanic Black population. The community has a larger than average child population and higher poverty than the county average. Nearly seventy-eight percent of households with children under 18 are headed by females. Therefore, we would expect that any shocks to the economy that disproportionately impact women would be felt more acutely in this community.

With respect to the workforce, Warrensville Heights has higher than average share of their workforce employed in occupations deemed "essential" and a lower share employed in "COVID-impacted" occupations compared to the community as a whole. 

Between September 2019 and September 2020, surveyed providers in Warrensville Heights experienced declines in both capacity and enrollment for children 0-5 years but the declines were lower than the average for Cuyahoga County and the City of Cleveland. The share of available seats filled declined at a rate similar to what surveyed providers were experiencing at the county-level - a relative surplus of available child care compared to the September 2019 period.

Select neighborhoods and municipalities below to explore demographic and labor market make-up, as well as the shifts observed in child care capacity and enrollment between September 2019 and September 2020.

As of early 2021, the community is still entrenched in the pandemic and its impacts are continually evolving. Child care providers are continuing to adapt and innovate amid these unprecedented circumstances. As such, it will be important to continue to keep an eye on many of the trends and data points laid out in this analysis to ensure that the child care delivery system is informed and prepared in the months and years ahead. Below are some key metrics and trends to focus upon moving forward:

• Evaluate the needs and adaptations of FCCH providers relative to LCC providers. Their needs, their ability to adapt, and their populations-served have diverged throughout this pandemic in considerable ways. Continuing to ensure that programs have the resources they need to meet the unique demands of the families they serve and their own personnel will be critical in continuing to navigate this troubling time.
• Further explore the the changing demographics of children attending child care facilities. With continued uncertainty about the K-5 learning options, it is clear that providers have adapted by serving an increasing proportion of school-aged children during this time. Serving a different mix of children with distinct developmental needs is an emerging trend among providers and paying attention to this moving forward could be helpful as programs adapt.
• Continue to track monthly child care subsidy usage in the County -- Monthly subsidy use has been decreasing since August. Even at its highest point in the last 6 months it is still at least 2,000 fewer subsidies were used compared to the previous 6 months.
• Pay attention to how the impacts of the pandemic are manifesting in divergent ways across our communities. It will be important to keep a geographic focus to ensure that communities that have traditionally experienced challenges due to disinvestment and systemic racism are prioritized in the recovery period so that existing inequalities are not exacerbated.
• Consider the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on women in recovery efforts. Nationally, it has been well-documented that women are bearing the brunt of the economic burden in the pandemic due to challenges associated with the availability of, the affordability of, and the perceived safety of child care. In addition, women are more likely to be employed in jobs that are front-line and at-risk for elimination - in particular, in Ohio, women make-up 95% of workers in child care settings (Groundwork Ohio, 2020). Attention needs to be paid to this national phenomenon and how it is manifesting locally. Communities with higher than average shares of female-headed households, in particular, should be paying close attention to these trends and ensuring that appropriate supports are in place for women and children.
• Garner the resources needed to ensure that children are getting the care that they need to enrich their early lives. It is well-documented that access to high-quality child care and preschool is critical for early childhood development. The change in enrollment observed in this study period is concerning from a child development perspective.

This analysis includes both family child care homes (FCCH, n=311) and licensed child care centers (LCC, n=350) within Cuyahoga County who responded to surveys administered in Quarter 3 (September) in both 2019 and 2020 (n=661). Some providers that were surveyed in 2019, were not found in the 2020 survey (n=325). These 325 missing providers mostly include ODE sites (n=174), ODJFS preschool providers (n=35), and inactive sites (n=84). Some other explanations are that some were contacted but did not respond in 2020 (n=15), some were closed permanently or temporarily (n=6), a few were registered as Type B FCCH and were not included (n=7), and 4 had licensing issues.

Similarly, some providers were included in the 2020 Quarter 3 survey but were not found in the 2019 Quarter 3 survey (n=85). Of those 85 providers, 52 responded in 2020 and 33 were unable to be reached. These 85 missing providers mostly included those marked as new programs (n=48). These new programs were both LCC (n=29) and FCCH (n=19) type programs. Fifteen providers were exclusively documented in the 2019 Q3 school-age data. Some of these 85 providers did not respond in 2019 (n=10) and some were inactive in 2019 (n=8). A few providers had licensing issues between 2019 and 2020 (n=3) and one provider was included in the 2019 Q3 capacity data.

Capacity is defined as the operational number of desired seats reported by the provider; it is not the licensed capacity.

This analysis includes both family child care homes (FCCH) and licensed child care centers (LCC) within Cuyahoga County who responded to surveys administered by Starting Point via telephone in Quarter 3 (September) in both 2019 and 2020. Each contacted provider responded to questions about their desired capacity, enrollment, and vacancies during the time of the survey. Providers reported the number of available slots for children of different ages and the most recent quality rating ( Step Up To Quality ) for their site. For each provider, changes in available seats from the perspective of capacity, enrollment, and vacancies between September 2019 and September 2020 were analyzed and aggregated across Cleveland neighborhoods and surrounding municipalities. Providers were also asked if they closed due to the pandemic either temporarily or permanently.

There was not a noticeable difference in the changes in enrollment, capacity, and the percent of available seats filled when comparing high-quality providers to lower quality providers (as measured by the state’s Step Up To Quality rating system), so the current analysis does not differentiate based on program quality rating.

The September 2020 quarterly survey also included four questions to providers about the impact of the pandemic.   The four additional questions are: 

1. What have been the effects of the pandemic on your program? 

2. How have families of children in your program coped with their child care needs during the pandemic? 

3. What are your concerns related to returning to work? 

4. What are your families’ concerns related to child care re-opening? 

Providers were presented with preset answers to these four pandemic questions and were also asked if they had any other comments they wanted to include. These responses were analyzed and coded and an analysis of trends are presented.

Essential Workers

Using the essential industries crosswalk table from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security as reference, occupations from the detailed occupation tables in the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates were classified as either essential or non-essential jobs (Kearney & Pardue, 2020).  The selected essential jobs were aggregated by occupation categories in the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates at the national level and the proportion of essential workers for each occupation category was calculated by gender. Since the ACS detailed occupation table is only available at the national level, it is used to calculate the proportion.  The calculated proportion is then applied to the ACS census tract data to estimate the number of essential workers for each Cuyahoga county neighborhood.

Workers in COVID-Impacted Industries

Relying upon the literature (Dey & Loewenstein 2020, Vavra, 2020; Ong et al, 2020), occupations in the following categories: Restaurants and Bars, Travel and Transportation, Entertainment, Personal Services, Sensitive Retail, and Sensitive Manufacturing (NAICS Classification: Restaurants and bars: 7223-7225. Travel and Transportation: 4811,4812, 4853, 4854, 4859, 4881,4883, 7211. Personal Services: 6212, 8121,8129. Entertainment: 7111, 7112, 7115, 7131, 7132, 7139. Other sensitive retail: 4411, 4412, 4421, 4422, 4481, 4482, 4483,4511,4512, 4522, 4531, 4532, 4539, 5322, 5323, 4243, 4413, 4543. Sensitive Manufacturing: 3352, 3361, 3362, 3363, 3364, 3366, 3371, 3372, 3379, 3399, 4231, 4232, 4239, 3132, 3141, 3149, 3152) were identified in the detailed occupation tables in the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates and were then classified as at-risk. The selected at-risk jobs were aggregated by occupation categories in the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates at the national level and the proportion of essential workers for each occupation category was calculated by gender. Since the ACS detailed occupation table is only available at the national level, it is used to calculate the proportion.  The calculated proportion is then applied to the ACS census tract data to estimate the number of at-risk workers for each Cuyahoga County neighborhood.

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 The Story Map was prepared by the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development  at the Jack, Joseph and Morton Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences at Case Western Reserve University:

Meghan Salas Atwell, PhD; Alena Sorensen; Emily Alexander; Rob Fischer, PhD; and Claudia Coulton, PhD

The authors would like to thank:

• Tsui Chan; Stephen Steh, MS; Nina Lalich, MSPH; Beth Anthony, PhD; and April Urban, MSSA for their assistance.
• Debbie Fodge, Shannon Viccarone, Michelle Bledsoe, and Subhit Kodapully at  Starting Point  for their administration of the quarterly child care provider survey, their development of the events timeline, their expertise, and for providing us with photographs.
• Ms. Billie Osborne-Fears, who as Executive Director of Starting Point, was the original principal investigator on this award. Sadly, Billie passed away in September 2020 after a career working on behalf of children and families in the Cleveland region. We dedicate this work to her memory and legacy in the domain of early care and education.
• The leadership of Cuyahoga County Invest in Children and PRE4CLE for their advice and review. A special thank you goes to Michelle Connavino for her thorough review.
• Yair Ghitza and Mark Steitz, PhD at the DEEP-MAPS Project for their work on projecting labor force statistics to the local level and their assistance with specifically looking at Cuyahoga County.

This work was made possible by  a grant  to Starting Point in collaboration with the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development at Case Western Reserve University from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute.