Transportation Equity in the Age of COVID-19

Here, we see the average ridership per train during the pre-pandemic period (February 1 - March 12). Peaking at nearly 75 riders per train on February 21, the Hartford Line was a popular mode of transportation for Connecticut travelers and commuters before the onset of the pandemic. However, as cases began to increase in early March, it's possible that travelers opted to avoid public transit on the HL, which explains the decline of average ridership in early March.

Mid-March witnessed a substantial decline in average ridership on the Hartford Line as the pandemic escalated across Connecticut. On March 13, all schools were ordered to close; on March 20, the "Stay Safe, Stay Home" executive order closed all non-essential, in-person businesses in the state. This was followed with a substantial drop (over 80%) in commuter ridership during the ten-day period between March 13 and March 23.

Towards the end of April -- between 4/21 and 4/28 -- we see a dramatic uptick in riders per train on the Hartford Line. This sudden and dramatic ridership increase is echoed across other modes of travel, such as highway travel, and could be attributed to a sense of "quarantine exhaustion" among Connecticut citizens.

This same week, we see the single-day maximums for new cases of COVID-19 (April 22) and deaths due to COVID-19 (April 24). After these dates, new case and death counts respectively begin to drop. Given this, it could be that the increased ridership numbers are associated with a sense of confidence and progress in Connecticut's fight against COVID-19.

Governor Lamont's stay-at-home order was lifted on May 20 as Connecticut began phase 1 of a statewide plan to reopen. As restaurants, retail stores, malls, and a limited number of businesses began to reopen, we see that average ridership gradually increased through late May and into early June. These changes, however, were not particularly substantial and ridership was still much lower than prior to the pandemic.

Phase 2 of the statewide reopening began on June 17. Restaurants, hotels, and gyms were allowed to reopen as confidence rose in Connecticut's efforts against the pandemic. However, as cases increased across the United States, Governor Lamont suspended the Phase 3 reopening for bars and public gatherings. These orders possibly explain the initial Phase 2 uptick in average ridership on the Hartford Line and the subsequent stabilization in July. As of July 17, ridership remains substantially below pre-pandemic levels.

There does not appear to be a significant trend between people over 65 years of age (those most vulnerable to COVID-19) and change in ridership. There are greater percentages of people over 65 years of age living outside of Hartford, where there is generally a negative percent change in ridership.

However, some block groups in northern Hartford where 20-30% of the population is over 65 also saw a positive average percent change in ridership.

The relationship between a change in ridership and populations living below the poverty level is much more apparent. In Hartford, many block groups with 20% or more of its population living below the poverty level also have bus stops whose ridership saw an average increase of 10% or more since March. 

In contrast, block groups with less than 10% of their population living below poverty level, such as in West Hartford and Wethersfield, there is a significant number of stops that saw decreasing APCR.

When overlaid with the block group showing percentages of White, Non-Hispanic people, the demographic differences in bus ridership become the most obvious.

The majority of the red and orange points, corresponding with decreasing ridership numbers, correspond to heavily white neighborhoods. In contrast, block groups with less than 20% white population see more bus stops with an increase in APCR, particularly in northern areas of Hartford.

There is a larger proportion of Black, non-Hispanic residents in northern block groups of Hartford, as well as in the southern block groups of Windsor and Bloomfield. These predominantly black block groups in northern Hartford have a significant number of bus stops with an increase in APCR of more than 10%. This area also has the most bus stops that experienced percent changes in ridership of 50% or more. 

Even areas with moderate percentages of Black, non-Hispanic residents, such as southeastern West Hartford and southwestern Hartford, saw moderate increases in APCR.

East Hartford also has moderate percentages of Black, non-Hispanic residents compared to other nearby communities, but saw more varied APCR in its bus ridership.

The relationship between age and ridership is not as apparent from this map. The percent of the population over age 65 across New Haven primarily hovers between 10-20%, with no apparent differences between higher and lower percentage blocks. One interesting area for further analysis could be Long Wharf, which saw increased ridership in this period despite a large elderly population.

Unlike the Hartford and Stamford bus systems, the New Haven bus system services a population with high poverty levels, with almost all of the bus stops located in areas with poverty levels of up to 30% and approximately half of the stops located in areas where up to 50% of the population is living below the poverty level. 

In contrast, Hartford services high poverty-level areas within the city but wealthier populations in the suburbs. Stamford is more wealthy in general, with very few block groups with more than 20% of the population living below the poverty level.

This map clearly shows a divide between block groups with larger and smaller White, non-Hispanic populations. On the west and southwest portions of the city, the APCR across this period remains low or sees only small increases. In contrast, we see much more green (corresponding to larger APCR) in East Rock and the north and east portions of the city. While there is a stark contrast between white and non-white populations in New Haven, there does not immediately appear to be a relationship between APCR and race.

Most of New Haven has a large proportion of Black, non-Hispanic residents. The only area with block groups with populations of less than 10% Black, non-Hispanic residents are those that make up the core of Yale University campus and Science Hill, into lower East Rock. These areas encompass both student housing, which has a different demographic distribution, and school buildings.

Because so much of the city has Black, non-Hispanic populations of 30% or greater, the differences in APCR across the city are less obvious. More analysis or more granular data is needed to understand the exact effects of COVID-19 on bus ridership in these areas.

There seems to be a slight negative correlation between age and APCR. While the younger block groups in the city center mostly experienced an increase or neutral shift in ridership, the older block groups in the periphery generally witnessed a decrease.

Most of Stamford has low poverty levels, though southwest Stamford has some block groups whose poverty levels range from 10 to 50%. Though the APCR of bus stops is more varied throughout Stamford, these impoverished block groups also see a concentration of bus stops with high APCR.

Similarly, block groups in southwest parts of Stamford have a greater percentage of residents who are not white, with several of these block groups having less than 20% white population. There is overlap in this area with poverty levels and the concentration of bus stops that experienced increases in APCR.

Elsewhere in Stamford, the percent of white, non-Hispanic residents varies among block groups. This mirrors the varied APCR levels among bus stops elsewhere in the city.

Most block groups in Stamford have less than 10% Black, non-Hispanic population. However, areas in the southern portion of the city have greater Black populations. While there's slightly greater percentages of Black residents in southwest Stamford, where the concentration of bus stops with high APCR lie, there does not seem to be as significant of a relationship between these two variables as what was present in Hartford.